Celta Vigo 47%Draw 28%Alaves 25%Expected goals 1.30 – 1.01
79%
Betarazi pick
Under 3.5 goals
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.27 · bookmaker 1.22 · Lost ✗
9/10Rating
1.22Odds
Picks by market
ResultCelta Vigo to win ✗47% · @1.90
Double chanceCelta Vigo or draw ✗75% · @1.20
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓53% · @2.00
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗79% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗8% · fair 11.78
Celta Vigo vs Alaves: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Celta Vigo welcome Alaves to Estadio Abanca-Balaídos for a La Liga fixture on Sunday 22 March (16:15 WAT). In the table, Celta Vigo are 11th, lower half, on 13 points after 12 matches; Alaves are 12th (lower half) with 13. They are level on points, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Celta Vigo, last 5: WDDLW Their latest outing: 2–0 win over Lyon, away. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 1 lost from 4. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 0.7 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Alaves, last 3: DLD Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Villarreal, at home. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 1.7 conceded per game.
Momentum favours Celta Vigo, collecting 1.8 points per game to 0.7 for Alaves.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Celta Vigo 1.3 xG, Alaves 1.0 xG – a total near 2.3. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 41%, GG 53%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to stay under 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Celta Vigo 47%, draw 28%, Alaves 25%.
Lower-risk option: Celta Vigo or draw (75%) at 1.20.
GG/NG: GG (53%) at 2.00.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (79%, odds 1.22). Most likely score in line with that pick: Celta Vigo 1–1 Alaves. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Celta Vigo47%fair 2.13 · @1.90
Draw28%fair 3.53 · @3.15
Alaves25%fair 4.04 · @4.40
2.31Expected goals
1.30Celta Vigo xG
1.01Alaves xG
53%Both score
41%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–113%
1–013%
0–110%
0–010%
2–18%
2–08%
From our goals model: Celta Vigo 1.3 – 1.0 Alaves expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Celta Vigo to win✗
47%
2.13
1.90
Double chance
Celta Vigo or draw✗
75%
1.33
1.20
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
53%
1.89
2.00 ▲
Draw no bet
Celta Vigo (draw no bet)✗
65%
1.53
–
Asian handicap
Alaves +1 (Asian handicap)✓
74%
1.35
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
67%
1.50
1.42
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
59%
1.70
1.62
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
79%
1.27
1.22
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✗
90%
1.11
1.06
First team to score
Celta Vigo to score first
51%
1.97
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
46%
2.18
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Celta Vigo / FT Celta Vigo✗
25%
3.98
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
8%
11.78
–
Recent results
Celta Vigo – last 6
WDDLWW
19 Mar
@ Lyon
2–0
W
15 Mar
@ Real Betis
1–1
D
12 Mar
vs Lyon
1–1
D
6 Mar
vs Real Madrid
1–2
L
26 Feb
vs PAOK
1–0
W
22 Feb
vs Mallorca
2–0
W
1.3Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
50%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Alaves – last 3
DLD
13 Mar
vs Villarreal
1–1
D
27 Feb
@ Levante
0–2
L
23 Feb
vs Girona
2–2
D
1.0Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
67%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Celta Vigo and Alaves.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 79% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Celta Vigo vs Alaves?
On our numbers Celta Vigo have a 47% chance of winning, the draw 28% and Alaves 25%.
How many goals will there be in Celta Vigo vs Alaves?
We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 41% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Celta Vigo vs Alaves?
Our predicted score is Celta Vigo 1–1 Alaves, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.3 goals in total.
When is Celta Vigo vs Alaves?
Celta Vigo vs Alaves (La Liga) kicks off on Sunday 22 March 2026 at 16:15 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Abanca-Balaídos.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
