Real Madrid 55%Draw 22%Atletico Madrid 23%Expected goals 1.85 – 1.06
65%
Betarazi pick
Under 3.5 goals
Good pick · fair odds 1.55 · bookmaker 1.50
6/10Rating
1.50Odds
Picks by market
ResultReal Madrid to win55% · @1.87
Double chanceEither team to win78% · @1.20
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score63% · @1.53
GoalsOver 1.5 goals79% · @1.18
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–110% · fair 10.12
Real Madrid vs Atletico Madrid: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Sunday 22 March the La Liga brings Real Madrid against Atletico Madrid at Estadio Santiago Bernabéu. Kick-off: 21:00 WAT. In the table, Real Madrid are 2nd, among the top four, on 30 points after 12 matches; Atletico Madrid are 3rd (among the top four) with 28. Only 2 points split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Real Madrid, last 5: WWWLW Their latest outing: 2–1 win over Manchester City, away. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.7 scored, 0.7 conceded per game.
Atletico Madrid, last 5: LWLWD Their latest outing: 2–3 defeat to Tottenham, away. Away from home the record reads 0 won, 3 lost from 4. 2.3 goals per outing makes them dangerous.
Momentum favours Real Madrid, collecting 2.5 points per game to 1.2 for Atletico Madrid.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Real Madrid 1.9 xG, Atletico Madrid 1.1 xG – a total near 2.9. That is an open game on paper: 57% for three or more goals, 63% for GG. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Real Madrid 55%, draw 22%, Atletico Madrid 23%.
GG/NG: GG (63%) at 1.53.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (65%, odds 1.50). Most likely score in line with that pick: Real Madrid 1–1 Atletico Madrid. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Real Madrid55%fair 1.82 · @1.87
Draw22%fair 4.52 · @3.95
Atletico Madrid23%fair 4.34 · @3.55
2.91Expected goals
1.85Real Madrid xG
1.06Atletico Madrid xG
63%Both score
57%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–111%
1–010%
2–110%
2–09%
3–16%
3–06%
From our goals model: Real Madrid 1.9 – 1.1 Atletico Madrid expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Real Madrid to win
55%
1.82
1.87
Double chance
Either team to win
78%
1.28
1.20
Both teams to score
Both teams to score
63%
1.58
1.53
Draw no bet
Real Madrid (draw no bet)
70%
1.42
–
Asian handicap
Atletico Madrid +1.5 (Asian handicap)
68%
1.47
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals
79%
1.26
1.18
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
57%
1.75
1.60
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals
65%
1.55
1.50
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals
81%
1.24
1.20
First team to score
Real Madrid to score first
60%
1.66
–
Half-time result
Real Madrid ahead at half-time
41%
2.44
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Real Madrid / FT Real Madrid
35%
2.87
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1
10%
10.12
–
Recent results
Real Madrid – last 6
WWWLWW
17 Mar
@ Manchester City
2–1
W
11 Mar
vs Manchester City
3–0
W
6 Mar
@ Celta Vigo
2–1
W
2 Mar
vs Getafe
0–1
L
25 Feb
vs Benfica
2–1
W
17 Feb
@ Benfica
1–0
W
1.7Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
50%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Atletico Madrid – last 6
LWLWDL
18 Mar
@ Tottenham
2–3
L
10 Mar
vs Tottenham
5–2
W
3 Mar
@ Barcelona
0–3
L
24 Feb
vs Club Brugge KV
4–1
W
18 Feb
@ Club Brugge KV
3–3
D
15 Feb
@ Rayo Vallecano
0–3
L
2.3Scored / game
2.5Conceded / game
67%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Real Madrid and Atletico Madrid.
What is the prediction for Real Madrid vs Atletico Madrid?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 65% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.50.
Who will win Real Madrid vs Atletico Madrid?
On our numbers Real Madrid have a 55% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Atletico Madrid 23%.
How many goals will there be in Real Madrid vs Atletico Madrid?
We expect about 2.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 57% likely and both teams score 63% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Real Madrid vs Atletico Madrid?
Our predicted score is Real Madrid 1–1 Atletico Madrid, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.9 goals in total.
When is Real Madrid vs Atletico Madrid?
Real Madrid vs Atletico Madrid (La Liga) kicks off on Sunday 22 March 2026 at 21:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Santiago Bernabéu.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
