Value bet: Espanyol to win @ 3.60 – our chance 31% vs 28% implied by the price (edge +12%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultRayo Vallecano to win ✓42% · @2.10
Double chanceEither team to win ✓73% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗52% · @1.83
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓76% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗8% · fair 11.85
Rayo Vallecano vs Espanyol: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
19:00 WAT, Thursday 23 April: Rayo Vallecano v Espanyol in the La Liga, played at Campo de Futbol de Vallecas. In the table, Rayo Vallecano are 14th, lower half, on 12 points after 11 matches; Espanyol are 13th (lower half) with 12. They are level on points, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Rayo Vallecano, last 5: LWWLL Their latest outing: 1–3 defeat to AEK Athens FC, away. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 1 lost from 4. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 1.0 conceded per game.
Espanyol, last 3: LDD Their latest outing: 1–2 defeat to Mallorca, away. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 1.7 conceded per game.
Momentum favours Rayo Vallecano, collecting 1.2 points per game to 0.7 for Espanyol.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Rayo Vallecano 1.3 xG, Espanyol 1.1 xG – a total near 2.5. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 45%, GG 52%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Rayo Vallecano 42%, draw 27%, Espanyol 31%.
GG/NG: GG (52%) at 1.83.
Price worth noting: Espanyol to win @3.60 – the bookmaker implies 28%, our ratings say 31%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (76%, odds 1.25). Most likely score in line with that pick: Rayo Vallecano 1–1 Espanyol. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Rayo Vallecano42%fair 2.40 · @2.10
Draw27%fair 3.69 · @3.15
Espanyol31%fair 3.21 · @3.60
2.45Expected goals
1.31Rayo Vallecano xG
1.14Espanyol xG
52%Both score
45%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–113%
1–011%
0–110%
0–09%
2–18%
2–07%
From our goals model: Rayo Vallecano 1.3 – 1.1 Espanyol expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Rayo Vallecano to win✓
42%
2.40
2.10
Double chance
Either team to win✓
73%
1.37
1.30
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
52%
1.94
1.83
Draw no bet
Rayo Vallecano (draw no bet)✓
57%
1.75
–
Asian handicap
Espanyol +1 (Asian handicap)
76%
1.31
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
69%
1.44
1.38
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
55%
1.80
1.70
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
76%
1.32
1.25
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
89%
1.13
1.08
First team to score
Rayo Vallecano to score first✓
49%
2.05
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
45%
2.24
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Rayo Vallecano / FT Rayo Vallecano✗
23%
4.28
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
8%
11.85
–
Recent results
Rayo Vallecano – last 6
LWWLLD
16 Apr
@ AEK Athens FC
1–3
L
9 Apr
vs AEK Athens FC
3–0
W
3 Apr
vs Elche
1–0
W
22 Mar
@ Barcelona
0–1
L
19 Mar
vs Samsunspor
0–1
L
16 Mar
vs Levante
1–1
D
1.0Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Espanyol – last 3
LDD
15 Mar
@ Mallorca
1–2
L
9 Mar
vs Oviedo
1–1
D
1 Mar
@ Elche
2–2
D
1.3Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
100%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Rayo Vallecano and Espanyol.
What is the prediction for Rayo Vallecano vs Espanyol?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 76% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Rayo Vallecano vs Espanyol?
On our numbers Rayo Vallecano have a 42% chance of winning, the draw 27% and Espanyol 31%.
How many goals will there be in Rayo Vallecano vs Espanyol?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 45% likely and both teams score 52% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Rayo Vallecano vs Espanyol?
Our predicted score is Rayo Vallecano 1–1 Espanyol, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Rayo Vallecano vs Espanyol?
Rayo Vallecano vs Espanyol (La Liga) kicks off on Thursday 23 April 2026 at 19:00 (West Africa Time) at Campo de Futbol de Vallecas.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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