Value bet: Oviedo to win @ 3.50 – our chance 32% vs 29% implied by the price (edge +12%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultVillarreal to win ✗43% · @2.08
Double chanceEither team to win ✗75% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓62% · @1.73
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓76% · @1.30
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗9% · fair 11.36
Oviedo vs Villarreal: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Oviedo welcome Villarreal to Estadio Nuevo Carlos Tartiere for a La Liga fixture on Thursday 23 April (20:30 WAT).
Current form
Oviedo, last 5: WDLDL Their latest outing: 1–0 win over Sevilla, at home. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 1.8 conceded per game.
Villarreal, last 5: LWDWW Their latest outing: 0–1 defeat to Girona, away. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.5 scored, 0.8 conceded per game.
Momentum favours Villarreal, collecting 2.2 points per game to 1.0 for Oviedo.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Oviedo 1.4 xG, Villarreal 1.5 xG – a total near 2.9. That is an open game on paper: 52% for three or more goals, 62% for GG.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Oviedo 32%, draw 25%, Villarreal 43%.
GG/NG: GG (62%) at 1.73.
Price worth noting: Oviedo to win @3.50 – the bookmaker implies 29%, our ratings say 32%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (76%, odds 1.30). Most likely score in line with that pick: Oviedo 1–1 Villarreal. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Oviedo32%fair 3.12 · @3.50
Draw25%fair 4.03 · @3.30
Villarreal43%fair 2.32 · @2.08
2.91Expected goals
1.38Oviedo xG
1.53Villarreal xG
62%Both score
52%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–111%
1–29%
0–18%
2–18%
1–07%
0–26%
From our goals model: Oviedo 1.4 – 1.5 Villarreal expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Villarreal to win✗
43%
2.32
2.08
Double chance
Either team to win✗
75%
1.33
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
62%
1.62
1.73 ▲
Draw no bet
Villarreal (draw no bet)
57%
1.74
–
Asian handicap
Oviedo +1 (Asian handicap)✓
74%
1.34
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
76%
1.32
1.30
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
52%
1.91
1.91
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
69%
1.45
1.33
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
84%
1.19
1.11
First team to score
Villarreal to score first✓
50%
2.01
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
40%
2.48
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Villarreal / FT Villarreal✗
24%
4.11
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
9%
11.36
–
Recent results
Oviedo – last 5
WDLDL
5 Apr
vs Sevilla
1–0
W
9 Mar
@ Espanyol
1–1
D
4 Mar
@ Rayo Vallecano
0–3
L
21 Feb
@ Real Sociedad
3–3
D
15 Feb
vs Athletic Club
1–2
L
1.2Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
60%Both scored
60%Over 2.5
Villarreal – last 6
LWDWWW
6 Apr
@ Girona
0–1
L
20 Mar
vs Real Sociedad
3–1
W
13 Mar
@ Alaves
1–1
D
8 Mar
vs Elche
2–1
W
22 Feb
vs Valencia
2–1
W
18 Feb
@ Levante
1–0
W
1.5Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
67%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Oviedo and Villarreal.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 76% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.30.
Who will win Oviedo vs Villarreal?
On our numbers Oviedo have a 32% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Villarreal 43%.
How many goals will there be in Oviedo vs Villarreal?
We expect about 2.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 52% likely and both teams score 62% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Oviedo vs Villarreal?
Our predicted score is Oviedo 1–1 Villarreal, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.9 goals in total.
When is Oviedo vs Villarreal?
Oviedo vs Villarreal (La Liga) kicks off on Thursday 23 April 2026 at 20:30 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Nuevo Carlos Tartiere.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
