Value bet: Atletico Madrid to win @ 2.70 – our chance 43% vs 37% implied by the price (edge +15%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultAtletico Madrid to win ✓43% · @2.70
Double chanceEither team to win ✓76% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓60% · @1.65
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓75% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✓9% · fair 10.75
Osasuna vs Atletico Madrid: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Atletico Madrid travel to face Osasuna on Tuesday 12 May in the La Liga, with Estadio El Sadar the venue – the ball rolls at 20:30 WAT. In the table, Osasuna are 16th, lower half, on 12 points after 12 matches; Atletico Madrid are 3rd (among the top four) with 28. There are 16 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
Osasuna, last 5: LLDDL Their latest outing: 2–3 defeat to Levante, away. Scoring is the worry: just 0.8 goals a game.
Atletico Madrid, last 5: LDLLW Their latest outing: 0–1 defeat to Arsenal, away. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 3 lost from 4. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 1.7 conceded per game.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Osasuna 1.2 xG, Atletico Madrid 1.6 xG – a total near 2.7. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 52%, GG 60%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Osasuna 33%, draw 24%, Atletico Madrid 43%.
GG/NG: GG (60%) at 1.65.
Price worth noting: Atletico Madrid to win @2.70 – the bookmaker implies 37%, our ratings say 43%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (75%, odds 1.25). Most likely score in line with that pick: Osasuna 1–1 Atletico Madrid. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Osasuna33%fair 3.03 · @2.42
Draw24%fair 4.11 · @3.45
Atletico Madrid43%fair 2.35 · @2.70
2.73Expected goals
1.17Osasuna xG
1.56Atletico Madrid xG
60%Both score
52%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–112%
0–110%
1–29%
0–28%
1–08%
2–17%
From our goals model: Osasuna 1.2 – 1.6 Atletico Madrid expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Atletico Madrid to win✓
43%
2.35
2.70 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
76%
1.32
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
60%
1.66
1.65
Draw no bet
Atletico Madrid (draw no bet)✓
56%
1.78
–
Asian handicap
Osasuna +1 (Asian handicap)
69%
1.44
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
75%
1.33
1.25
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
52%
1.92
1.80
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
70%
1.44
1.38
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
85%
1.18
1.13
First team to score
Atletico Madrid to score first✓
54%
1.87
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
42%
2.40
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Atletico Madrid / FT Atletico Madrid✓
28%
3.59
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✓
9%
10.75
–
Recent results
Osasuna – last 6
LLDDLD
8 May
@ Levante
2–3
L
21 Apr
@ Athletic Club
0–1
L
12 Apr
vs Real Betis
1–1
D
5 Apr
@ Alaves
2–2
D
1 Mar
@ Valencia
0–1
L
13 Feb
@ Elche
0–0
D
0.8Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Atletico Madrid – last 6
LDLLWL
5 May
@ Arsenal
0–1
L
29 Apr
vs Arsenal
1–1
D
22 Apr
@ Elche
2–3
L
14 Apr
vs Barcelona
1–2
L
8 Apr
@ Barcelona
2–0
W
18 Mar
@ Tottenham
2–3
L
1.3Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
67%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Osasuna and Atletico Madrid.
What is the prediction for Osasuna vs Atletico Madrid?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 75% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Osasuna vs Atletico Madrid?
On our numbers Osasuna have a 33% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Atletico Madrid 43%.
How many goals will there be in Osasuna vs Atletico Madrid?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 52% likely and both teams score 60% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Osasuna vs Atletico Madrid?
Our predicted score is Osasuna 1–1 Atletico Madrid, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.
When is Osasuna vs Atletico Madrid?
Osasuna vs Atletico Madrid (La Liga) kicks off on Tuesday 12 May 2026 at 20:30 (West Africa Time) at Estadio El Sadar.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
