Value bet: Karpaty to win @ 3.65 – our chance 30% vs 27% implied by the price (edge +10%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultMetalist 1925 Kharkiv to win ✗44% · @2.00
Double chanceEither team to win ✗74% · @1.28
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓58% · @1.85
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗76% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 11.41
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv vs Karpaty: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv welcome Karpaty to Tsentralnyi Stadion for a Premier League fixture on Tuesday 12 May (16:00 WAT). In the table, Metalist 1925 Kharkiv are 4th, among the top four, on 21 points after 9 matches; Karpaty are 5th (upper half) with 19. Only 2 points split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv, last 5: LDWDW Their latest outing: 0–1 defeat to Polessya, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 0.5 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Karpaty, last 5: LDWWW Their latest outing: 0–1 defeat to Kryvbas KR, away. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.8 scored, 0.3 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 4 clean sheets in that run.
Momentum favours Karpaty, collecting 1.8 points per game to 1.3 for Metalist 1925 Kharkiv.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Metalist 1925 Kharkiv 1.4 xG, Karpaty 1.2 xG – a total near 2.5. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 45%, GG 58%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to stay under 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Metalist 1925 Kharkiv 44%, draw 26%, Karpaty 30%.
GG/NG: GG (58%) at 1.85.
Price worth noting: Karpaty to win @3.65 – the bookmaker implies 27%, our ratings say 30%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (76%, odds 1.22). Most likely score in line with that pick: Metalist 1925 Kharkiv 1–1 Karpaty. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv44%fair 2.26 · @2.00
Draw26%fair 3.89 · @3.10
Karpaty30%fair 3.33 · @3.65
2.55Expected goals
1.39Metalist 1925 Kharkiv xG
1.16Karpaty xG
58%Both score
45%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–113%
1–011%
0–19%
2–19%
0–08%
2–08%
From our goals model: Metalist 1925 Kharkiv 1.4 – 1.2 Karpaty expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv to win✗
44%
2.26
2.00
Double chance
Either team to win✗
74%
1.35
1.28
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
58%
1.72
1.85 ▲
Draw no bet
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv (draw no bet)
60%
1.68
–
Asian handicap
Karpaty +1 (Asian handicap)✓
74%
1.35
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
70%
1.44
1.40
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
55%
1.82
1.65
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
76%
1.32
1.22
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
88%
1.13
–
First team to score
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv to score first✓
50%
1.99
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
44%
2.30
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Metalist 1925 Kharkiv / FT Metalist 1925 Kharkiv✗
25%
4.04
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
11.41
–
Recent results
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv – last 6
LDWDWL
3 May
vs Polessya
0–1
L
26 Apr
@ LNZ Cherkasy
1–1
D
15 Apr
vs Veres Rivne
4–0
W
4 Apr
@ Kolos Kovalivka
0–0
D
19 Mar
vs SK Poltava
2–0
W
15 Mar
@ Shakhtar Donetsk
0–1
L
1.2Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
17%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Karpaty – last 6
LDWWWD
8 May
@ Kryvbas KR
0–1
L
19 Apr
@ Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
0–0
D
11 Apr
vs Oleksandria
2–0
W
22 Mar
vs Obolon'-Brovar
4–0
W
13 Mar
@ SK Poltava
4–0
W
8 Mar
vs Kudrivka
1–1
D
1.8Scored / game
0.3Conceded / game
17%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Metalist 1925 Kharkiv and Karpaty.
What is the prediction for Metalist 1925 Kharkiv vs Karpaty?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 76% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Metalist 1925 Kharkiv vs Karpaty?
On our numbers Metalist 1925 Kharkiv have a 44% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Karpaty 30%.
How many goals will there be in Metalist 1925 Kharkiv vs Karpaty?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 45% likely and both teams score 58% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Metalist 1925 Kharkiv vs Karpaty?
Our predicted score is Metalist 1925 Kharkiv 1–1 Karpaty, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Metalist 1925 Kharkiv vs Karpaty?
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv vs Karpaty (Premier League) kicks off on Tuesday 12 May 2026 at 16:00 (West Africa Time) at Tsentralnyi Stadion.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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