Value bet: Las Palmas to win @ 1.69 – our chance 63% vs 59% implied by the price (edge +7%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultLas Palmas to win ✓63% · @1.69
Double chanceLas Palmas or draw ✓85% · @1.17
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗53% · @1.95
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗73% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.30
Las Palmas vs AD Ceuta FC: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
14:00 WAT, Sunday 8 March: Las Palmas v AD Ceuta FC in the Segunda División, played at Estadio de Gran Canaria. In the table, Las Palmas are 10th, upper half, on 20 points after 13 matches; AD Ceuta FC are 22nd (in the drop zone) with 5. There are 15 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
AD Ceuta FC, last 4: WWWL Their latest outing: 1–0 win over Mirandes, away. Goals for and against: 1.5 scored, 1.3 conceded per game.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Las Palmas 1.9 xG, AD Ceuta FC 0.8 xG – a total near 2.7. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 48%, GG 53%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Las Palmas 63%, draw 21%, AD Ceuta FC 15%.
Lower-risk option: Las Palmas or draw (85%) at 1.17.
GG/NG: GG (53%) at 1.95.
Price worth noting: Las Palmas to win @1.69 – the bookmaker implies 59%, our ratings say 63%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (73%, odds 1.36). Most likely score in line with that pick: Las Palmas 2–0 AD Ceuta FC. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Las Palmas63%fair 1.58 · @1.69
Draw21%fair 4.67 · @3.60
AD Ceuta FC15%fair 6.54 · @5.00
2.72Expected goals
1.93Las Palmas xG
0.80AD Ceuta FC xG
53%Both score
48%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–013%
2–012%
1–110%
2–110%
3–08%
0–07%
From our goals model: Las Palmas 1.9 – 0.8 AD Ceuta FC expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Las Palmas
AD Ceuta FC
Attack vs Segunda División average
+8%
-31%
Goals conceded vs average
+12%
+35%
Our expected goals here
2.29
0.91
Our own ratings from every Segunda División result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Las Palmas to win✓
63%
1.58
1.69 ▲
Double chance
Las Palmas or draw✓
85%
1.18
1.17
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
53%
1.89
1.95
Draw no bet
Las Palmas (draw no bet)✓
81%
1.24
–
Asian handicap
Las Palmas -0.5 (Asian handicap)✓
64%
1.56
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
73%
1.38
1.36
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
52%
1.92
1.70
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
73%
1.37
1.25
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
87%
1.15
1.07
First team to score
Las Palmas to score first✓
66%
1.51
–
Half-time result
Las Palmas ahead at half-time✓
46%
2.19
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Las Palmas / FT Las Palmas✓
41%
2.46
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
10%
10.30
–
Recent results
Las Palmas – last 2
WD
1 Mar
@ Cultural Leonesa
3–0
W
15 Feb
@ Mirandes
1–1
D
2.0Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
AD Ceuta FC – last 4
WWWL
1 Mar
@ Mirandes
1–0
W
25 Feb
vs Cordoba
3–2
W
20 Feb
vs Granada CF
2–1
W
15 Feb
@ Huesca
0–2
L
1.5Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Las Palmas and AD Ceuta FC.
What is the prediction for Las Palmas vs AD Ceuta FC?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 73% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.36.
Who will win Las Palmas vs AD Ceuta FC?
On our numbers Las Palmas have a 63% chance of winning, the draw 21% and AD Ceuta FC 15%.
How many goals will there be in Las Palmas vs AD Ceuta FC?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 48% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Las Palmas vs AD Ceuta FC?
Our predicted score is Las Palmas 2–0 AD Ceuta FC, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.
When is Las Palmas vs AD Ceuta FC?
Las Palmas vs AD Ceuta FC (Segunda División) kicks off on Sunday 8 March 2026 at 14:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio de Gran Canaria.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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