Value bet: Almeria to win @ 1.69 – our chance 67% vs 59% implied by the price (edge +13%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultAlmeria to win ✓67% · @1.69
Double chanceAlmeria or draw ✓87% · @1.17
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓54% · @1.73
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓77% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✓9% · fair 10.64
Almeria vs Leganes: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Leganes travel to face Almeria on Sunday 5 April in the Segunda División, with UD Almería Stadium the venue – the ball rolls at 17:30 WAT. In the table, Almeria are 1st, leading the league, on 29 points after 13 matches; Leganes are 18th (lower half) with 12. There are 17 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
Almeria, last 5: LWWWD Their latest outing: 0–2 defeat to Castellón, away. In their own stadium the record reads 3 won, 0 lost from 3. Scoring is no problem – 2.5 a game lately.
Leganes, last 4: DLDD Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Zaragoza, at home. Scoring is the worry: just 0.5 goals a game.
Momentum favours Almeria, collecting 2.2 points per game to 0.8 for Leganes.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Almeria 2.2 xG, Leganes 0.7 xG – a total near 2.9. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 54%, GG 54%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Almeria 67%, draw 20%, Leganes 13%.
Lower-risk option: Almeria or draw (87%) at 1.17.
GG/NG: GG (54%) at 1.73.
Price worth noting: Almeria to win @1.69 – the bookmaker implies 59%, our ratings say 67%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (77%, odds 1.25). Most likely score in line with that pick: Almeria 2–0 Leganes. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Almeria67%fair 1.50 · @1.69
Draw20%fair 5.04 · @3.70
Leganes13%fair 7.49 · @4.85
2.90Expected goals
2.18Almeria xG
0.72Leganes xG
54%Both score
54%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
2–013%
1–012%
3–010%
2–19%
1–19%
3–17%
From our goals model: Almeria 2.2 – 0.7 Leganes expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Almeria
Leganes
Attack vs Segunda División average
+32%
-30%
Goals conceded vs average
-26%
+20%
Our expected goals here
2.48
0.61
Our own ratings from every Segunda División result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Almeria to win✓
67%
1.50
1.69 ▲
Double chance
Almeria or draw✓
87%
1.15
1.17
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
54%
1.85
1.73
Draw no bet
Almeria (draw no bet)✓
83%
1.20
–
Asian handicap
Almeria -1 (Asian handicap)
62%
1.62
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
77%
1.31
1.25
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
54%
1.85
1.80
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
68%
1.48
1.38
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
83%
1.20
1.14
First team to score
Almeria to score first
71%
1.41
–
Half-time result
Almeria ahead at half-time✗
51%
1.96
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Almeria / FT Almeria✗
47%
2.13
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✓
9%
10.64
–
Recent results
Almeria – last 6
LWWWDW
2 Apr
@ Castellón
0–2
L
29 Mar
vs Real Sociedad II
5–1
W
20 Mar
@ Huesca
3–1
W
9 Mar
vs Cultural Leonesa
3–0
W
27 Feb
@ Albacete
1–1
D
13 Feb
vs FC Andorra
3–2
W
2.5Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Leganes – last 4
DLDD
2 Apr
vs Zaragoza
1–1
D
8 Mar
vs Eibar
0–1
L
2 Mar
@ Sporting Gijon
0–0
D
21 Feb
vs Cultural Leonesa
1–1
D
0.5Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
50%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Almeria and Leganes.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 77% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Almeria vs Leganes?
On our numbers Almeria have a 67% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Leganes 13%.
How many goals will there be in Almeria vs Leganes?
We expect about 2.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 54% likely and both teams score 54% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Almeria vs Leganes?
Our predicted score is Almeria 2–0 Leganes, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.9 goals in total.
When is Almeria vs Leganes?
Almeria vs Leganes (Segunda División) kicks off on Sunday 5 April 2026 at 17:30 (West Africa Time) at UD Almería Stadium.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Huesca1
Zaragoza1
Mirandes2