Value bet: AS Jeunesse Esch to win @ 3.30 – our chance 36% vs 30% implied by the price (edge +18%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultProgres Niederkorn to win ✗39% · @2.05
Double chanceEither team to win ✓75% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓60% · @1.73
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓74% · @1.30
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗8% · fair 12.44
AS Jeunesse Esch vs Progres Niederkorn: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
AS Jeunesse Esch welcome Progres Niederkorn to Stade de la Frontiere for a National Division fixture on Sunday 17 May (17:30 WAT). In the table, AS Jeunesse Esch are 10th, lower half, on 13 points after 12 matches; Progres Niederkorn are 6th (upper half) with 22.
Current form
AS Jeunesse Esch, last 4: LDLL Their latest outing: 2–3 defeat to US Hostert, at home. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 1.8 conceded per game.
Progres Niederkorn, last 5: LWDWL Their latest outing: 2–3 defeat to FC Differdange 03, at home. Away from home the record reads 3 won, 1 lost from 4. The attack is flying at 2.0 goals per game.
Momentum favours Progres Niederkorn, collecting 1.7 points per game to 0.3 for AS Jeunesse Esch.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give AS Jeunesse Esch 1.4 xG, Progres Niederkorn 1.3 xG – a total near 2.8. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 50%, GG 60%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – AS Jeunesse Esch 36%, draw 25%, Progres Niederkorn 39%.
GG/NG: GG (60%) at 1.73.
Price worth noting: AS Jeunesse Esch to win @3.30 – the bookmaker implies 30%, our ratings say 36%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (74%, odds 1.30). Most likely score in line with that pick: AS Jeunesse Esch 1–1 Progres Niederkorn. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
AS Jeunesse Esch36%fair 2.79 · @3.30
Draw25%fair 4.04 · @3.30
Progres Niederkorn39%fair 2.54 · @2.05
2.77Expected goals
1.43AS Jeunesse Esch xG
1.34Progres Niederkorn xG
60%Both score
50%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–112%
1–09%
2–19%
0–18%
1–28%
2–06%
From our goals model: AS Jeunesse Esch 1.4 – 1.3 Progres Niederkorn expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Progres Niederkorn to win✗
39%
2.54
2.05
Double chance
Either team to win✓
75%
1.33
1.22
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
60%
1.68
1.73
Draw no bet
Progres Niederkorn (draw no bet)✗
52%
1.91
–
Asian handicap
Progres Niederkorn +0.5 (Asian handicap)✗
61%
1.65
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
74%
1.35
1.30
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
50%
1.99
1.93
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
71%
1.41
1.30
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
85%
1.17
–
First team to score
AS Jeunesse Esch to score first
48%
2.07
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
42%
2.40
–
Half-time / full-time
HT AS Jeunesse Esch / FT AS Jeunesse Esch✗
23%
4.34
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
8%
12.44
–
Recent results
AS Jeunesse Esch – last 4
LDLL
22 Mar
vs US Hostert
2–3
L
15 Mar
@ FC Differdange 03
1–1
D
8 Mar
vs Jeunesse Canach
0–1
L
15 Feb
@ Mamer
1–2
L
1.0Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
75%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Progres Niederkorn – last 6
LWDWLW
8 May
vs FC Differdange 03
2–3
L
22 Apr
@ Atert Bissen
2–1
W
22 Mar
vs UN Kaerjeng 97
2–2
D
15 Mar
@ US Hostert
5–1
W
8 Mar
@ UNA Strassen
0–2
L
4 Mar
@ Wiltz
1–0
W
2.0Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between AS Jeunesse Esch and Progres Niederkorn.
What is the prediction for AS Jeunesse Esch vs Progres Niederkorn?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 74% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.30.
Who will win AS Jeunesse Esch vs Progres Niederkorn?
On our numbers AS Jeunesse Esch have a 36% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Progres Niederkorn 39%.
How many goals will there be in AS Jeunesse Esch vs Progres Niederkorn?
We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 50% likely and both teams score 60% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for AS Jeunesse Esch vs Progres Niederkorn?
Our predicted score is AS Jeunesse Esch 1–1 Progres Niederkorn, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.8 goals in total.
When is AS Jeunesse Esch vs Progres Niederkorn?
AS Jeunesse Esch vs Progres Niederkorn (National Division) kicks off on Sunday 17 May 2026 at 17:30 (West Africa Time) at Stade de la Frontiere.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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