Caerau (Ely) 56%Draw 23%Carmarthen Town 21%Expected goals 2.08 – 1.30
79%
Betarazi pick
Caerau (Ely) or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.27 · bookmaker 1.22 · Lost ✗
9/10Rating
1.22Odds
Picks by market
ResultCaerau (Ely) to win ✗56% · @1.80
Double chanceCaerau (Ely) or draw ✗79% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓62% · @1.62
GoalsOver 2.5 goals ✓66% · fair 1.52
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.45
Caerau (Ely) vs Carmarthen Town: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Saturday 21 February the FAW Championship brings Caerau (Ely) against Carmarthen Town at Cwrt-yr-Ala. Kick-off: 15:00 WAT. In the table, Caerau (Ely) are 4th, among the top four, on 22 points after 13 matches; Carmarthen Town are 10th (lower half) with 15.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Caerau (Ely) 2.1 xG, Carmarthen Town 1.3 xG – a total near 3.4. That is an open game on paper: 66% for three or more goals, 62% for GG.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Caerau (Ely) 56%, draw 23%, Carmarthen Town 21%.
Lower-risk option: Caerau (Ely) or draw (79%) at 1.22.
GG/NG: GG (62%) at 1.62.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Caerau (Ely) or draw (79%, odds 1.22). Most likely score in line with that pick: Caerau (Ely) 2–1 Carmarthen Town. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Caerau (Ely)56%fair 1.79 · @1.80
Draw23%fair 4.35 · @3.30
Carmarthen Town21%fair 4.72 · @3.60
3.38Expected goals
2.08Caerau (Ely) xG
1.30Carmarthen Town xG
62%Both score
66%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
2–110%
1–19%
2–07%
1–07%
3–17%
2–26%
From our goals model: Caerau (Ely) 2.1 – 1.3 Carmarthen Town expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Caerau (Ely)
Carmarthen Town
Attack vs FAW Championship average
-1%
+2%
Goals conceded vs average
-4%
+35%
Our expected goals here
2.41
1.62
Our own ratings from every FAW Championship result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Caerau (Ely) to win✗
56%
1.79
1.80
Double chance
Caerau (Ely) or draw✗
79%
1.27
1.22
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
62%
1.61
1.62
Draw no bet
Caerau (Ely) (draw no bet)✗
72%
1.38
–
Asian handicap
Carmarthen Town +1.5 (Asian handicap)✓
67%
1.50
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
85%
1.17
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
66%
1.52
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
56%
1.78
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✗
75%
1.34
–
First team to score
Caerau (Ely) to score first
59%
1.68
–
Half-time result
Caerau (Ely) ahead at half-time✗
42%
2.38
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Caerau (Ely) / FT Caerau (Ely)✗
35%
2.86
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
10%
10.45
–
Recent results
Caerau (Ely) – last 1
L
13 Feb
@ Cambrian & Clydach
0–3
L
0.0Scored / game
3.0Conceded / game
0%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Carmarthen Town – last 1
L
13 Feb
vs Trefelin
0–2
L
0.0Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
0%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Caerau (Ely) and Carmarthen Town.
What is the prediction for Caerau (Ely) vs Carmarthen Town?
Our pick is Caerau (Ely) or draw with a 79% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Caerau (Ely) vs Carmarthen Town?
On our numbers Caerau (Ely) have a 56% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Carmarthen Town 21%.
How many goals will there be in Caerau (Ely) vs Carmarthen Town?
We expect about 3.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 66% likely and both teams score 62% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Caerau (Ely) vs Carmarthen Town?
Our predicted score is Caerau (Ely) 2–1 Carmarthen Town, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.4 goals in total.
When is Caerau (Ely) vs Carmarthen Town?
Caerau (Ely) vs Carmarthen Town (FAW Championship) kicks off on Saturday 21 February 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time) at Cwrt-yr-Ala.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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