Pontypridd Town vs Baglan Dragons: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Baglan Dragons travel to face Pontypridd Town on Saturday 21 February in the FAW Championship, with USW Sports Park the venue – the ball rolls at 15:00 WAT. In the table, Pontypridd Town are 1st, leading the league, on 27 points after 13 matches; Baglan Dragons are 5th (upper half) with 20.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Pontypridd Town 1.8 xG, Baglan Dragons 1.1 xG – a total near 2.9. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 55%, GG 56%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Pontypridd Town 54%, draw 24%, Baglan Dragons 22%.
Lower-risk option: Pontypridd Town or draw (78%) at 1.20.
GG/NG: GG (56%) at 1.75.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Pontypridd Town or draw (78%, odds 1.20). Most likely score in line with that pick: Pontypridd Town 1–1 Baglan Dragons. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Pontypridd Town54%fair 1.84 · @1.73
Draw24%fair 4.23 · @3.30
Baglan Dragons22%fair 4.54 · @4.00
2.87Expected goals
1.80Pontypridd Town xG
1.07Baglan Dragons xG
56%Both score
55%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–111%
1–010%
2–110%
2–09%
0–16%
3–16%
From our goals model: Pontypridd Town 1.8 – 1.1 Baglan Dragons expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Pontypridd Town
Baglan Dragons
Attack vs FAW Championship average
+36%
-35%
Goals conceded vs average
+4%
-24%
Our expected goals here
1.86
1.13
Our own ratings from every FAW Championship result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Pontypridd Town to win✓
54%
1.84
1.73
Double chance
Pontypridd Town or draw✓
78%
1.28
1.20
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
56%
1.77
1.75
Draw no bet
Pontypridd Town (draw no bet)✓
71%
1.41
–
Asian handicap
Baglan Dragons +1.5 (Asian handicap)✗
69%
1.44
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
78%
1.28
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
55%
1.83
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
68%
1.48
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
84%
1.20
–
First team to score
Pontypridd Town to score first✓
59%
1.69
–
Half-time result
Pontypridd Town ahead at half-time✗
40%
2.50
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Pontypridd Town / FT Pontypridd Town✗
34%
2.98
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
10%
10.18
–
Recent results
Pontypridd Town
No recent results on record.
Baglan Dragons – last 1
L
17 Feb
@ Trefelin
0–3
L
0.0Scored / game
3.0Conceded / game
0%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Pontypridd Town and Baglan Dragons.
What is the prediction for Pontypridd Town vs Baglan Dragons?
Our pick is Pontypridd Town or draw with a 78% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Pontypridd Town vs Baglan Dragons?
On our numbers Pontypridd Town have a 54% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Baglan Dragons 22%.
How many goals will there be in Pontypridd Town vs Baglan Dragons?
We expect about 2.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 55% likely and both teams score 56% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Pontypridd Town vs Baglan Dragons?
Our predicted score is Pontypridd Town 1–1 Baglan Dragons, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.9 goals in total.
When is Pontypridd Town vs Baglan Dragons?
Pontypridd Town vs Baglan Dragons (FAW Championship) kicks off on Saturday 21 February 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time) at USW Sports Park.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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