Aberystwyth Town 45%Draw 24%Caerau (Ely) 30%Expected goals 1.78 – 1.21
63%
Betarazi pick
Both teams to score
Good pick · fair odds 1.58 · bookmaker 1.57 · Lost ✗
6/10Rating
1.57Odds
1
Value bet: Aberystwyth Town to win @ 2.45 – our chance 45% vs 41% implied by the price (edge +11%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultAberystwyth Town to win ✗45% · @2.45
Double chanceEither team to win ✓76% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗63% · @1.57
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓80% · fair 1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.38
Aberystwyth Town vs Caerau (Ely): Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Sunday 1 March the FAW Championship brings Aberystwyth Town against Caerau (Ely) at Park Avenue. Kick-off: 15:30 WAT. In the table, Aberystwyth Town are 2nd, among the top four, on 25 points after 11 matches; Caerau (Ely) are 4th (among the top four) with 22. Only 3 points split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Aberystwyth Town 1.8 xG, Caerau (Ely) 1.2 xG – a total near 3.0. Both nets should be busy – over 2.5 sits at 57% and GG at 63%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Aberystwyth Town 45%, draw 24%, Caerau (Ely) 30%.
GG/NG: GG (63%) at 1.57.
Price worth noting: Aberystwyth Town to win @2.45 – the bookmaker implies 41%, our ratings say 45%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Both teams to score (63%, odds 1.57). Most likely score in line with that pick: Aberystwyth Town 1–1 Caerau (Ely). Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Aberystwyth Town45%fair 2.20 · @2.45
Draw24%fair 4.11 · @3.10
Caerau (Ely)30%fair 3.30 · @2.50
2.99Expected goals
1.78Aberystwyth Town xG
1.21Caerau (Ely) xG
63%Both score
57%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–111%
2–110%
1–09%
2–08%
1–27%
0–16%
From our goals model: Aberystwyth Town 1.8 – 1.2 Caerau (Ely) expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Aberystwyth Town
Caerau (Ely)
Attack vs FAW Championship average
+17%
-1%
Goals conceded vs average
-34%
-4%
Our expected goals here
2.01
1.09
Our own ratings from every FAW Championship result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Aberystwyth Town to win✗
45%
2.20
2.45 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
76%
1.32
1.30
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
63%
1.58
1.57
Draw no bet
Aberystwyth Town (draw no bet)✗
60%
1.67
–
Asian handicap
Caerau (Ely) +1 (Asian handicap)✓
64%
1.56
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
80%
1.25
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
57%
1.74
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
65%
1.54
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
82%
1.22
–
First team to score
Aberystwyth Town to score first✗
56%
1.77
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
39%
2.55
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Aberystwyth Town / FT Aberystwyth Town✗
31%
3.22
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
10%
10.38
–
Recent results
Aberystwyth Town – last 1
L
24 Feb
@ Ammanford AFC
1–2
L
1.0Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
100%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Caerau (Ely) – last 2
LL
21 Feb
vs Carmarthen Town
3–4
L
13 Feb
@ Cambrian & Clydach
0–3
L
1.5Scored / game
3.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Aberystwyth Town and Caerau (Ely).
What is the prediction for Aberystwyth Town vs Caerau (Ely)?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 63% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.57.
Who will win Aberystwyth Town vs Caerau (Ely)?
On our numbers Aberystwyth Town have a 45% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Caerau (Ely) 30%.
How many goals will there be in Aberystwyth Town vs Caerau (Ely)?
We expect about 3.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 57% likely and both teams score 63% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Aberystwyth Town vs Caerau (Ely)?
Our predicted score is Aberystwyth Town 1–1 Caerau (Ely), the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.0 goals in total.
When is Aberystwyth Town vs Caerau (Ely)?
Aberystwyth Town vs Caerau (Ely) (FAW Championship) kicks off on Sunday 1 March 2026 at 15:30 (West Africa Time) at Park Avenue.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Rhyl3
Ruthin Town2
Ammanford AFC1
Cambrian & Clydach4