Nacional vs FC Porto: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
FC Porto travel to face Nacional on Sunday 15 February in the Primeira Liga, with Estádio da Madeira the venue – the ball rolls at 16:30 WAT. In the table, Nacional are 13th, lower half, on 10 points after 11 matches; FC Porto are 1st (leading the league) with 33. There are 23 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Nacional 0.7 xG, FC Porto 2.0 xG – a total near 2.7. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 52%, GG 53%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Nacional 11%, draw 20%, FC Porto 69%.
GG/NG: GG (53%) at 1.95.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (75%, odds 1.25). Most likely score in line with that pick: Nacional 0–2 FC Porto. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Nacional11%fair 8.89 · @8.25
Draw20%fair 4.99 · @4.40
FC Porto69%fair 1.46 · @1.39
2.68Expected goals
0.66Nacional xG
2.02FC Porto xG
53%Both score
52%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
0–214%
0–114%
0–39%
1–29%
1–19%
0–07%
From our goals model: Nacional 0.7 – 2.0 FC Porto expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
FC Porto to win✓
69%
1.46
1.39
Double chance
FC Porto or draw✓
89%
1.13
1.07
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
53%
1.90
1.95
Draw no bet
FC Porto (draw no bet)✓
86%
1.16
–
Asian handicap
FC Porto -0.5 (Asian handicap)✓
70%
1.44
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
75%
1.33
1.25
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
52%
1.94
1.77
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
70%
1.44
1.40
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
85%
1.18
1.14
First team to score
FC Porto to score first✓
70%
1.42
–
Half-time result
FC Porto ahead at half-time✗
49%
2.03
–
Half-time / full-time
HT FC Porto / FT FC Porto✗
45%
2.21
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
9%
10.86
–
Recent results
Nacional
No recent results on record.
FC Porto
No recent results on record.
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Nacional and FC Porto.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 75% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Nacional vs FC Porto?
On our numbers Nacional have a 11% chance of winning, the draw 20% and FC Porto 69%.
How many goals will there be in Nacional vs FC Porto?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 52% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Nacional vs FC Porto?
Our predicted score is Nacional 0–2 FC Porto, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.
When is Nacional vs FC Porto?
Nacional vs FC Porto (Primeira Liga) kicks off on Sunday 15 February 2026 at 16:30 (West Africa Time) at Estádio da Madeira.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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