Good pick · fair odds 1.53 · bookmaker 1.48 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.48Odds
GG
Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.00 – our chance 54% vs 50% implied by the price (edge +8%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultTondela to win ✗36% · @2.52
Double chanceEither team to win ✗71% · @1.33
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓54% · @2.00
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓80% · @1.18
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗8% · fair 12.89
Tondela vs Alverca: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
21:45 WAT, Friday 13 February: Tondela v Alverca in the Primeira Liga, played at Estádio João Cardoso.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Tondela 1.2 xG, Alverca 1.1 xG – a total near 2.3. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 39%, GG 54%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Tondela 36%, draw 29%, Alverca 35%.
GG/NG: GG (54%) at 2.00.
Price worth noting: Both teams to score @2.00 – the bookmaker implies 50%, our ratings say 54%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (65%, odds 1.48). Most likely score in line with that pick: Tondela 1–1 Alverca. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Tondela36%fair 2.78 · @2.52
Draw29%fair 3.48 · @3.00
Alverca35%fair 2.84 · @2.96
2.30Expected goals
1.17Tondela xG
1.13Alverca xG
54%Both score
39%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–113%
1–012%
0–111%
0–010%
2–18%
1–27%
From our goals model: Tondela 1.2 – 1.1 Alverca expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Tondela to win✗
36%
2.78
2.52
Double chance
Either team to win✗
71%
1.40
1.33
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
54%
1.85
2.00 ▲
Draw no bet
Tondela (draw no bet)
50%
1.98
–
Asian handicap
Alverca +0.5 (Asian handicap)✓
63%
1.58
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
65%
1.53
1.48
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
61%
1.65
1.53
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
80%
1.25
1.18
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
91%
1.10
1.05
First team to score
Tondela to score first✗
46%
2.18
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
46%
2.16
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Tondela / FT Tondela✗
21%
4.78
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
8%
12.89
–
Recent results
Tondela
No recent results on record.
Alverca
No recent results on record.
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Tondela and Alverca.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 65% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.48.
Who will win Tondela vs Alverca?
On our numbers Tondela have a 36% chance of winning, the draw 29% and Alverca 35%.
How many goals will there be in Tondela vs Alverca?
We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 39% likely and both teams score 54% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Tondela vs Alverca?
Our predicted score is Tondela 1–1 Alverca, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.3 goals in total.
When is Tondela vs Alverca?
Tondela vs Alverca (Primeira Liga) kicks off on Friday 13 February 2026 at 21:45 (West Africa Time) at Estádio João Cardoso.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
