Casa Pia 34%Draw 29%Moreirense 37%Expected goals 1.16 – 1.26
66%
Betarazi pick
Over 1.5 goals
Good pick · fair odds 1.51 · bookmaker 1.50 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.50Odds
GG
Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.00 – our chance 53% vs 50% implied by the price (edge +6%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultMoreirense to win ✗37% · @2.75
Double chanceEither team to win ✗71% · @1.33
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓53% · @2.00
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓79% · @1.18
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗8% · fair 12.22
Casa Pia vs Moreirense: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Sunday 1 March the Primeira Liga brings Casa Pia against Moreirense at Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior. Kick-off: 19:00 WAT. In the table, Casa Pia are 16th, in the drop zone, on 8 points after 11 matches; Moreirense are 9th (upper half) with 14.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Casa Pia 1.2 xG, Moreirense 1.3 xG – a total near 2.4. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 41%, GG 53%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Casa Pia 34%, draw 29%, Moreirense 37%.
GG/NG: GG (53%) at 2.00.
Price worth noting: Both teams to score @2.00 – the bookmaker implies 50%, our ratings say 53%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (66%, odds 1.50). Most likely score in line with that pick: Casa Pia 1–1 Moreirense. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Casa Pia34%fair 2.91 · @2.75
Draw29%fair 3.47 · @2.90
Moreirense37%fair 2.72 · @2.75
2.42Expected goals
1.16Casa Pia xG
1.26Moreirense xG
53%Both score
41%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–113%
0–111%
1–010%
0–09%
1–28%
2–18%
From our goals model: Casa Pia 1.2 – 1.3 Moreirense expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Moreirense to win✗
37%
2.72
2.75
Double chance
Either team to win✗
71%
1.41
1.33
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
53%
1.88
2.00 ▲
Draw no bet
Moreirense (draw no bet)
52%
1.93
–
Asian handicap
Casa Pia +0.5 (Asian handicap)✓
61%
1.63
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
66%
1.51
1.50
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
59%
1.68
1.50
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
79%
1.27
1.18
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
90%
1.11
1.05
First team to score
Moreirense to score first✗
47%
2.11
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
45%
2.23
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Moreirense / FT Moreirense✗
22%
4.52
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
8%
12.22
–
Recent results
Casa Pia – last 1
L
23 Feb
@ Famalicao
0–2
L
0.0Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
0%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Moreirense – last 1
W
16 Feb
@ Rio Ave
2–1
W
2.0Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
100%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Casa Pia and Moreirense.
What is the prediction for Casa Pia vs Moreirense?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 66% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.50.
Who will win Casa Pia vs Moreirense?
On our numbers Casa Pia have a 34% chance of winning, the draw 29% and Moreirense 37%.
How many goals will there be in Casa Pia vs Moreirense?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 41% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Casa Pia vs Moreirense?
Our predicted score is Casa Pia 1–1 Moreirense, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Casa Pia vs Moreirense?
Casa Pia vs Moreirense (Primeira Liga) kicks off on Sunday 1 March 2026 at 19:00 (West Africa Time) at Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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