FC Porto 74%Draw 17%Moreirense 9%Expected goals 2.14 – 0.61
54%
Betarazi pick
Not both teams to score
Fair pick · fair odds 1.84 · bookmaker 1.40
4/10Rating
1.40Odds
Picks by market
ResultFC Porto to win74% · @1.17
Double chanceFC Porto or draw91% · @1.02
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score54% · @1.40
GoalsOver 1.5 goals76% · fair 1.32
Correct scoreCorrect score 3–010% · fair 9.53
FC Porto vs Moreirense: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
21:30 WAT, Sunday 15 March: FC Porto v Moreirense in the Primeira Liga, played at Estádio Do Dragão. In the table, FC Porto are 1st, leading the league, on 33 points after 11 matches; Moreirense are 9th (upper half) with 14. There are 19 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
FC Porto, last 5: WDLWW Their latest outing: 2–1 win over VfB Stuttgart, away. Goals for and against: 1.5 scored, 0.8 conceded per game.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give FC Porto 2.1 xG, Moreirense 0.6 xG – a total near 2.7. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 52%, GG 46%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – FC Porto 74%, draw 17%, Moreirense 9%.
GG/NG: NG (54%) at 1.40.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Not both teams to score (54%, odds 1.40). Most likely score in line with that pick: FC Porto 2–0 Moreirense. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
FC Porto74%fair 1.35 · @1.17
Draw17%fair 5.85 · @6.50
Moreirense9%fair 11.56 · @17.00
2.75Expected goals
2.14FC Porto xG
0.61Moreirense xG
46%Both score
52%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
2–015%
1–014%
3–010%
2–19%
1–18%
0–06%
From our goals model: FC Porto 2.1 – 0.6 Moreirense expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
FC Porto to win
74%
1.35
1.17
Double chance
FC Porto or draw
91%
1.09
1.02
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score
54%
1.84
1.40
Draw no bet
FC Porto (draw no bet)
90%
1.12
–
Asian handicap
FC Porto -1 (Asian handicap)
64%
1.56
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals
76%
1.32
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
52%
1.93
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals
70%
1.42
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals
86%
1.17
–
First team to score
FC Porto to score first
73%
1.37
–
Half-time result
FC Porto ahead at half-time
52%
1.93
–
Half-time / full-time
HT FC Porto / FT FC Porto
48%
2.07
–
Correct score
Correct score 3–0
10%
9.53
–
Recent results
FC Porto – last 6
WDLWWW
12 Mar
@ VfB Stuttgart
2–1
W
8 Mar
@ Benfica
2–2
D
3 Mar
@ Sporting CP
0–1
L
27 Feb
vs Arouca
3–1
W
22 Feb
vs Rio Ave
1–0
W
15 Feb
@ Nacional
1–0
W
1.5Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Moreirense – last 2
DW
1 Mar
@ Casa Pia
1–1
D
16 Feb
@ Rio Ave
2–1
W
1.5Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
100%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between FC Porto and Moreirense.
What is the prediction for FC Porto vs Moreirense?
Our pick is Not both teams to score with a 54% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.40.
Who will win FC Porto vs Moreirense?
On our numbers FC Porto have a 74% chance of winning, the draw 17% and Moreirense 9%.
How many goals will there be in FC Porto vs Moreirense?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 52% likely and both teams score 46% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for FC Porto vs Moreirense?
Our predicted score is FC Porto 2–0 Moreirense, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.
When is FC Porto vs Moreirense?
FC Porto vs Moreirense (Primeira Liga) kicks off on Sunday 15 March 2026 at 21:30 (West Africa Time) at Estádio Do Dragão.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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