Rio Ave 40%Draw 25%Estrela 35%Expected goals 1.58 – 1.53
63%
Betarazi pick
Both teams to score
Good pick · fair odds 1.59 · bookmaker 1.80 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.80Odds
Picks by market
ResultRio Ave to win ✓40% · @2.25
Double chanceEither team to win ✓75% · @1.33
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓63% · @1.80
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓82% · fair 1.23
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✓9% · fair 11.76
Rio Ave vs Estrela: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Rio Ave welcome Estrela to Estádio do Rio Ave Futebol Clube for a Primeira Liga fixture on Sunday 15 March (19:00 WAT). In the table, Rio Ave are 17th, in the drop zone, on 7 points after 11 matches; Estrela are 12th (lower half) with 10. Only 3 points split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Rio Ave, last 3: WLL Their latest outing: 1–0 win over Tondela, away. Scoring is the worry: just 0.7 goals a game.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Rio Ave 1.6 xG, Estrela 1.5 xG – a total near 3.1. That is an open game on paper: 60% for three or more goals, 63% for GG.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Rio Ave 40%, draw 25%, Estrela 35%.
GG/NG: GG (63%) at 1.80.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Both teams to score (63%, odds 1.80 – longer than our fair 1.59, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Rio Ave 1–1 Estrela. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Rio Ave40%fair 2.52 · @2.25
Draw25%fair 4.02 · @3.20
Estrela35%fair 2.83 · @3.00
3.11Expected goals
1.58Rio Ave xG
1.53Estrela xG
63%Both score
60%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–111%
2–19%
1–28%
1–07%
0–17%
2–27%
From our goals model: Rio Ave 1.6 – 1.5 Estrela expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Rio Ave to win✓
40%
2.52
2.25
Double chance
Either team to win✓
75%
1.33
1.33
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
63%
1.59
1.80 ▲
Draw no bet
Rio Ave (draw no bet)✓
53%
1.89
–
Asian handicap
Estrela +0.5 (Asian handicap)✗
61%
1.64
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
82%
1.23
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
60%
1.67
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
62%
1.60
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
80%
1.25
–
First team to score
Rio Ave to score first✓
48%
2.06
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
39%
2.57
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Rio Ave / FT Rio Ave✓
23%
4.32
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✓
9%
11.76
–
Recent results
Rio Ave – last 3
WLL
9 Mar
@ Tondela
1–0
W
22 Feb
@ FC Porto
0–1
L
16 Feb
vs Moreirense
1–2
L
0.7Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Estrela – last 2
DL
8 Mar
vs GIL Vicente
2–2
D
20 Feb
vs Tondela
0–2
L
1.0Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Rio Ave and Estrela.
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 63% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.80.
Who will win Rio Ave vs Estrela?
On our numbers Rio Ave have a 40% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Estrela 35%.
How many goals will there be in Rio Ave vs Estrela?
We expect about 3.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 60% likely and both teams score 63% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Rio Ave vs Estrela?
Our predicted score is Rio Ave 1–1 Estrela, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.1 goals in total.
When is Rio Ave vs Estrela?
Rio Ave vs Estrela (Primeira Liga) kicks off on Sunday 15 March 2026 at 19:00 (West Africa Time) at Estádio do Rio Ave Futebol Clube.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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