Value bet: Arouca to win @ 2.50 – our chance 47% vs 40% implied by the price (edge +17%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultArouca to win ✓47% · @2.50
Double chanceEither team to win ✓76% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓60% · @1.62
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓76% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.22
Arouca vs Estoril: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Arouca welcome Estoril to Estádio Municipal de Arouca for a Primeira Liga fixture on Monday 6 April (18:45 WAT). In the table, Arouca are 5th, upper half, on 20 points after 11 matches; Estoril are 18th (in the drop zone) with 2. There are 18 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
Arouca, last 3: LLW Their latest outing: 0–1 defeat to Famalicao, away. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 1.3 conceded per game.
Estoril, last 5: LWLWL Their latest outing: 1–2 defeat to Rio Ave, at home. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 2 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 1.8 conceded per game.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Arouca 1.7 xG, Estoril 1.0 xG – a total near 2.8. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 52%, GG 60%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Arouca 47%, draw 24%, Estoril 29%.
GG/NG: GG (60%) at 1.62.
Price worth noting: Arouca to win @2.50 – the bookmaker implies 40%, our ratings say 47%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (76%, odds 1.25). Most likely score in line with that pick: Arouca 1–1 Estoril. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Arouca47%fair 2.14 · @2.50
Draw24%fair 4.12 · @3.50
Estoril29%fair 3.44 · @2.60
2.77Expected goals
1.75Arouca xG
1.02Estoril xG
60%Both score
52%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–111%
1–011%
2–110%
2–010%
0–16%
0–06%
From our goals model: Arouca 1.7 – 1.0 Estoril expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Arouca to win✓
47%
2.14
2.50 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
76%
1.32
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
60%
1.67
1.62
Draw no bet
Arouca (draw no bet)✓
62%
1.62
–
Asian handicap
Estoril +1 (Asian handicap)
60%
1.67
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
76%
1.32
1.25
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
52%
1.91
1.80
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
69%
1.45
1.38
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✗
84%
1.19
1.14
First team to score
Arouca to score first
59%
1.69
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
41%
2.46
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Arouca / FT Arouca✗
34%
2.98
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
10%
10.22
–
Recent results
Arouca – last 3
LLW
6 Mar
@ Famalicao
0–1
L
27 Feb
@ FC Porto
1–3
L
21 Feb
vs Nacional
3–0
W
1.3Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
33%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Estoril – last 5
LWLWL
22 Mar
vs Rio Ave
1–2
L
15 Mar
@ Nacional
1–0
W
27 Feb
@ Sporting CP
0–3
L
22 Feb
vs GIL Vicente
3–1
W
15 Feb
@ AVS
0–3
L
1.0Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
40%Both scored
80%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Arouca and Estoril.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 76% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Arouca vs Estoril?
On our numbers Arouca have a 47% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Estoril 29%.
How many goals will there be in Arouca vs Estoril?
We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 52% likely and both teams score 60% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Arouca vs Estoril?
Our predicted score is Arouca 1–1 Estoril, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.8 goals in total.
When is Arouca vs Estoril?
Arouca vs Estoril (Primeira Liga) kicks off on Monday 6 April 2026 at 18:45 (West Africa Time) at Estádio Municipal de Arouca.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
