Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.05 – our chance 54% vs 49% implied by the price (edge +10%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultBenfica to win ✗75% · @1.21
Double chanceBenfica or draw ✓91% · @1.03
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓54% · @2.05
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓81% · @1.17
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗9% · fair 11.06
Casa Pia vs Benfica: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Benfica travel to face Casa Pia on Monday 6 April in the Primeira Liga, with Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior the venue – the ball rolls at 20:45 WAT. In the table, Casa Pia are 16th, in the drop zone, on 8 points after 11 matches; Benfica are 2nd (among the top four) with 28. There are 20 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
Casa Pia, last 3: LDL Their latest outing: 0–4 defeat to Estrela, away. Scoring is the worry: just 0.3 goals a game.
Benfica, last 5: DWLLW Their latest outing: 2–2 draw with FC Porto, at home. Away from home the record reads 2 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.4 scored, 1.4 conceded per game.
Momentum favours Benfica, collecting 1.4 points per game to 0.3 for Casa Pia.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Casa Pia 0.7 xG, Benfica 2.4 xG – a total near 3.1. Both nets should be busy – over 2.5 sits at 61% and GG at 54%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Casa Pia 9%, draw 16%, Benfica 75%.
GG/NG: GG (54%) at 2.05.
Price worth noting: Both teams to score @2.05 – the bookmaker implies 49%, our ratings say 54%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Benfica to win (75%, odds 1.21). Most likely score in line with that pick: Casa Pia 0–2 Benfica. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Casa Pia9%fair 10.53 · @13.50
Draw16%fair 6.32 · @5.80
Benfica75%fair 1.34 · @1.21
3.13Expected goals
0.70Casa Pia xG
2.43Benfica xG
54%Both score
61%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
0–213%
0–111%
0–310%
1–29%
1–17%
1–37%
From our goals model: Casa Pia 0.7 – 2.4 Benfica expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Benfica to win✗
75%
1.34
1.21
Double chance
Benfica or draw✓
91%
1.10
1.03
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
54%
1.86
2.05 ▲
Draw no bet
Benfica (draw no bet)
89%
1.13
–
Asian handicap
Benfica -1 (Asian handicap)✗
68%
1.46
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
81%
1.23
1.17
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
61%
1.64
1.53
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
60%
1.66
1.60
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
78%
1.28
1.22
First team to score
Benfica to score first
74%
1.35
–
Half-time result
Benfica ahead at half-time✗
55%
1.82
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Benfica / FT Benfica✗
51%
1.95
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
9%
11.06
–
Recent results
Casa Pia – last 3
LDL
20 Mar
@ Estrela
0–4
L
1 Mar
vs Moreirense
1–1
D
23 Feb
@ Famalicao
0–2
L
0.3Scored / game
2.3Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Benfica – last 5
DWLLW
8 Mar
vs FC Porto
2–2
D
2 Mar
@ GIL Vicente
2–1
W
25 Feb
@ Real Madrid
1–2
L
17 Feb
vs Real Madrid
0–1
L
13 Feb
@ Santa Clara
2–1
W
1.4Scored / game
1.4Conceded / game
80%Both scored
80%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Casa Pia and Benfica.
Our pick is Benfica to win with a 75% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.21.
Who will win Casa Pia vs Benfica?
On our numbers Casa Pia have a 9% chance of winning, the draw 16% and Benfica 75%.
How many goals will there be in Casa Pia vs Benfica?
We expect about 3.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 61% likely and both teams score 54% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Casa Pia vs Benfica?
Our predicted score is Casa Pia 0–2 Benfica, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.1 goals in total.
When is Casa Pia vs Benfica?
Casa Pia vs Benfica (Primeira Liga) kicks off on Monday 6 April 2026 at 20:45 (West Africa Time) at Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
