Value bet: Both teams to score @ 1.85 – our chance 60% vs 54% implied by the price (edge +10%). Bigger price, more risk.
Picks by market
ResultFarense to win47% · @1.98
Double chanceEither team to win75% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score60% · @1.85
GoalsOver 1.5 goals72% · @1.40
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–19% · fair 10.65
Farense vs Leixoes: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Saturday 14 February the Segunda Liga brings Farense against Leixoes at Estádio de São Lúis. Kick-off: 16:30 WAT. In the table, Farense are 8th, upper half, on 15 points after 10 matches; Leixoes are 12th (lower half) with 11.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Farense 1.6 xG, Leixoes 1.2 xG – a total near 2.9. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 49%, GG 60%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Farense 47%, draw 25%, Leixoes 29%.
GG/NG: GG (60%) at 1.85.
Price worth noting: Both teams to score @1.85 – the bookmaker implies 54%, our ratings say 60%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (72%, odds 1.40). Most likely score in line with that pick: Farense 1–1 Leixoes. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Farense47%fair 2.15 · @1.98
Draw25%fair 4.02 · @3.10
Leixoes29%fair 3.51 · @3.80
2.85Expected goals
1.64Farense xG
1.22Leixoes xG
60%Both score
49%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–111%
1–09%
2–19%
2–08%
0–17%
1–27%
From our goals model: Farense 1.6 – 1.2 Leixoes expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Farense
Leixoes
Attack vs Segunda Liga average
+13%
+11%
Goals conceded vs average
+7%
+31%
Our expected goals here
1.99
1.46
Our own ratings from every Segunda Liga result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Farense to win
47%
2.15
1.98
Double chance
Either team to win
75%
1.33
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score
60%
1.68
1.85 ▲
Draw no bet
Farense (draw no bet)
62%
1.61
–
Asian handicap
Leixoes +1 (Asian handicap)
68%
1.47
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals
72%
1.38
1.40
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals
51%
1.96
1.65
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals
72%
1.38
1.22
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals
84%
1.19
–
First team to score
Farense to score first
54%
1.85
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time
41%
2.46
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Farense / FT Farense
28%
3.52
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1
9%
10.65
–
Recent results
Farense
No recent results on record.
Leixoes
No recent results on record.
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Farense and Leixoes.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 72% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.40.
Who will win Farense vs Leixoes?
On our numbers Farense have a 47% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Leixoes 29%.
How many goals will there be in Farense vs Leixoes?
We expect about 2.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 49% likely and both teams score 60% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Farense vs Leixoes?
Our predicted score is Farense 1–1 Leixoes, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.9 goals in total.
When is Farense vs Leixoes?
Farense vs Leixoes (Segunda Liga) kicks off on Saturday 14 February 2026 at 16:30 (West Africa Time) at Estádio de São Lúis.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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