Value bet: Southend to win @ 2.55 – our chance 43% vs 39% implied by the price (edge +9%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultSouthend to win ✓43% · @2.55
Double chanceEither team to win ✓76% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓62% · @1.65
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓77% · @1.30
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 10.82
Southend vs Rochdale: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Southend welcome Rochdale to Roots Hall for a National League fixture on Tuesday 17 March (20:45 WAT).
Current form
Southend, last 4: DDLW Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Gateshead, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 0 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 1.0 conceded per game.
Rochdale, last 4: WDWD Their latest outing: 3–2 win over Brackley Town, at home. The attack is flying at 2.3 goals per game.
Momentum favours Rochdale, collecting 2.0 points per game to 1.3 for Southend.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Southend 1.8 xG, Rochdale 1.4 xG – a total near 3.2. Both nets should be busy – over 2.5 sits at 56% and GG at 62%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Southend 43%, draw 24%, Rochdale 33%.
GG/NG: GG (62%) at 1.65.
Price worth noting: Southend to win @2.55 – the bookmaker implies 39%, our ratings say 43%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (77%, odds 1.30). Most likely score in line with that pick: Southend 1–1 Rochdale. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Southend43%fair 2.33 · @2.55
Draw24%fair 4.22 · @3.10
Rochdale33%fair 2.99 · @2.55
3.20Expected goals
1.80Southend xG
1.40Rochdale xG
62%Both score
56%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–110%
2–19%
1–07%
1–27%
2–07%
2–26%
From our goals model: Southend 1.8 – 1.4 Rochdale expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Southend
Rochdale
Attack vs National League average
+37%
+5%
Goals conceded vs average
+7%
+1%
Our expected goals here
2.42
1.60
Our own ratings from every National League result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Southend to win✓
43%
2.33
2.55 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
76%
1.31
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
62%
1.61
1.65
Draw no bet
Southend (draw no bet)✓
56%
1.78
–
Asian handicap
Rochdale +1 (Asian handicap)
68%
1.48
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
77%
1.29
1.30
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
56%
1.79
1.85
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
66%
1.52
1.30
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✗
78%
1.28
–
First team to score
Southend to score first
54%
1.86
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
38%
2.63
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Southend / FT Southend✓
29%
3.49
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
10.82
–
Recent results
Southend – last 4
DDLW
10 Mar
vs Gateshead
1–1
D
3 Mar
vs Truro City
1–1
D
24 Feb
vs Boreham Wood
0–2
L
21 Feb
@ Brackley Town
3–0
W
1.3Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
25%Over 2.5
Rochdale – last 4
WDWD
3 Mar
vs Brackley Town
3–2
W
24 Feb
@ FC Halifax Town
2–2
D
21 Feb
vs Woking
3–0
W
17 Feb
vs Scunthorpe
1–1
D
2.3Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
75%Both scored
75%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Southend and Rochdale.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 77% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.30.
Who will win Southend vs Rochdale?
On our numbers Southend have a 43% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Rochdale 33%.
How many goals will there be in Southend vs Rochdale?
We expect about 3.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 56% likely and both teams score 62% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Southend vs Rochdale?
Our predicted score is Southend 1–1 Rochdale, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.2 goals in total.
When is Southend vs Rochdale?
Southend vs Rochdale (National League) kicks off on Tuesday 17 March 2026 at 20:45 (West Africa Time) at Roots Hall.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Truro City1
Brackley Town1