Value bet: Spartak Moscow to win @ 2.35 – our chance 46% vs 43% implied by the price (edge +9%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultSpartak Moscow to win ✗46% · @2.35
Double chanceEither team to win ✓76% · @1.34
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓60% · @1.67
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓76% · @1.26
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.43
Spartak Moscow vs FC Krasnodar: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Thursday 23 April the Premier League brings Spartak Moscow against FC Krasnodar at Lukoil Arena. Kick-off: 17:45 WAT. In the table, Spartak Moscow are 3rd, among the top four, on 29 points after 14 matches; FC Krasnodar are 4th (among the top four) with 26. Only 3 points split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Spartak Moscow, last 5: WWWWW Their latest outing: 3–1 win over Akhmat, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 4 won, 0 lost from 4. 2.3 goals per outing makes them dangerous.
FC Krasnodar, last 5: DWWLL Their latest outing: 0–0 draw with Dynamo, away. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 2 lost from 4. Goals for and against: 1.7 scored, 1.2 conceded per game.
Momentum favours Spartak Moscow, collecting 2.5 points per game to 1.7 for FC Krasnodar.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Spartak Moscow 1.7 xG, FC Krasnodar 1.2 xG – a total near 2.9. That is an open game on paper: 53% for three or more goals, 60% for GG. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Spartak Moscow 46%, draw 24%, FC Krasnodar 30%.
GG/NG: GG (60%) at 1.67.
Price worth noting: Spartak Moscow to win @2.35 – the bookmaker implies 43%, our ratings say 46%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (76%, odds 1.26). Most likely score in line with that pick: Spartak Moscow 1–1 FC Krasnodar. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Spartak Moscow46%fair 2.16 · @2.35
Draw24%fair 4.20 · @3.52
FC Krasnodar30%fair 3.34 · @3.08
2.92Expected goals
1.72Spartak Moscow xG
1.20FC Krasnodar xG
60%Both score
53%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–111%
2–110%
1–09%
2–08%
1–27%
0–16%
From our goals model: Spartak Moscow 1.7 – 1.2 FC Krasnodar expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Spartak Moscow to win✗
46%
2.16
2.35 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
76%
1.31
1.34
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
60%
1.67
1.67
Draw no bet
Spartak Moscow (draw no bet)✗
61%
1.65
–
Asian handicap
FC Krasnodar +1 (Asian handicap)✓
65%
1.54
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
76%
1.31
1.26
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
53%
1.88
1.90
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
68%
1.47
1.33
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
83%
1.20
1.08
First team to score
Spartak Moscow to score first
56%
1.79
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
40%
2.51
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Spartak Moscow / FT Spartak Moscow✗
30%
3.30
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
10%
10.43
–
Recent results
Spartak Moscow – last 6
WWWWWL
19 Apr
vs Akhmat
3–1
W
5 Apr
vs Lokomotiv
2–1
W
22 Mar
@ FC Orenburg
2–0
W
18 Mar
vs Dynamo
1–0
W
9 Mar
vs Akron
4–3
W
5 Mar
@ Dynamo
2–5
L
2.3Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
FC Krasnodar – last 6
DWWLLW
8 Apr
@ Dynamo
0–0
D
17 Mar
vs CSKA Moscow
4–0
W
14 Mar
@ FC Sochi
2–1
W
8 Mar
@ Rubin
1–2
L
4 Mar
@ CSKA Moscow
1–3
L
28 Feb
vs FC Rostov
2–1
W
1.7Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
67%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Spartak Moscow and FC Krasnodar.
What is the prediction for Spartak Moscow vs FC Krasnodar?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 76% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.26.
Who will win Spartak Moscow vs FC Krasnodar?
On our numbers Spartak Moscow have a 46% chance of winning, the draw 24% and FC Krasnodar 30%.
How many goals will there be in Spartak Moscow vs FC Krasnodar?
We expect about 2.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 53% likely and both teams score 60% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Spartak Moscow vs FC Krasnodar?
Our predicted score is Spartak Moscow 1–1 FC Krasnodar, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.9 goals in total.
When is Spartak Moscow vs FC Krasnodar?
Spartak Moscow vs FC Krasnodar (Premier League) kicks off on Thursday 23 April 2026 at 17:45 (West Africa Time) at Lukoil Arena.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
