Value bet: Baltika to win @ 3.95 – our chance 29% vs 25% implied by the price (edge +13%). Bigger price, more risk.
Picks by market
ResultLokomotiv to win44% · @2.04
Double chanceEither team to win73% · @1.35
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score51% · @1.89
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals78% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–18% · fair 12.04
Lokomotiv vs Baltika: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Lokomotiv welcome Baltika to RZD Arena for a Premier League fixture on Sunday 10 May (17:30 WAT). In the table, Lokomotiv are 15th, in the drop zone, on 11 points after 14 matches; Baltika are 9th (lower half) with 17.
Current form
Lokomotiv, last 5: DDWLW Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Dynamo, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 0 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 1.2 conceded per game.
Baltika, last 5: LDDLL Their latest outing: 0–1 defeat to Akron, at home. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 1 lost from 4. Scoring is the worry: just 0.7 goals a game.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Lokomotiv 1.3 xG, Baltika 1.1 xG – a total near 2.3. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 43%, GG 51%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Lokomotiv 44%, draw 27%, Baltika 29%.
GG/NG: GG (51%) at 1.89.
Price worth noting: Baltika to win @3.95 – the bookmaker implies 25%, our ratings say 29%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (78%, odds 1.22). Most likely score in line with that pick: Lokomotiv 1–1 Baltika. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Lokomotiv44%fair 2.27 · @2.04
Draw27%fair 3.64 · @3.44
Baltika29%fair 3.50 · @3.95
2.34Expected goals
1.27Lokomotiv xG
1.07Baltika xG
51%Both score
43%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–113%
1–012%
0–110%
0–010%
2–18%
2–08%
From our goals model: Lokomotiv 1.3 – 1.1 Baltika expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Lokomotiv to win
44%
2.27
2.04
Double chance
Either team to win
73%
1.38
1.35
Both teams to score
Both teams to score
51%
1.95
1.89
Draw no bet
Lokomotiv (draw no bet)
61%
1.65
–
Asian handicap
Baltika +1 (Asian handicap)
76%
1.31
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals
68%
1.47
1.35
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals
57%
1.75
1.72
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals
78%
1.29
1.22
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals
90%
1.11
1.02
First team to score
Lokomotiv to score first
49%
2.04
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time
46%
2.18
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Lokomotiv / FT Lokomotiv
24%
4.24
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1
8%
12.04
–
Recent results
Lokomotiv – last 6
DDWLWL
1 May
vs Dynamo
1–1
D
22 Apr
vs Zenit
0–0
D
18 Apr
@ FC Orenburg
1–0
W
5 Apr
@ Spartak Moscow
1–2
L
22 Mar
vs Akron
5–1
W
15 Mar
@ Rubin
0–3
L
1.3Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Baltika – last 6
LDDLLW
27 Apr
vs Akron
0–1
L
23 Apr
@ Akhmat
1–1
D
5 Apr
@ Dinamo Makhachkala
2–2
D
3 Mar
vs Zenit
0–1
L
27 Feb
@ Zenit
0–1
L
22 Feb
@ Krylia Sovetov
1–0
W
0.7Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
33%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Lokomotiv and Baltika.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 78% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Lokomotiv vs Baltika?
On our numbers Lokomotiv have a 44% chance of winning, the draw 27% and Baltika 29%.
How many goals will there be in Lokomotiv vs Baltika?
We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 43% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Lokomotiv vs Baltika?
Our predicted score is Lokomotiv 1–1 Baltika, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.3 goals in total.
When is Lokomotiv vs Baltika?
Lokomotiv vs Baltika (Premier League) kicks off on Sunday 10 May 2026 at 17:30 (West Africa Time) at RZD Arena.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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