Alfreton Town 33%Draw 25%Merthyr Town 42%Expected goals 1.35 – 1.61
64%
Betarazi pick
Under 3.5 goals
Good pick · fair odds 1.57 · bookmaker 1.50 · Lost ✗
6/10Rating
1.50Odds
Picks by market
ResultMerthyr Town to win ✗42% · @2.40
Double chanceEither team to win ✓75% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓62% · @1.45
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓79% · @1.18
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗9% · fair 11.04
Alfreton Town vs Merthyr Town: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
16:00 WAT, Saturday 21 February: Alfreton Town v Merthyr Town in the National League North, played at The Impact Arena.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Alfreton Town 1.4 xG, Merthyr Town 1.6 xG – a total near 3.0. That is an open game on paper: 58% for three or more goals, 62% for GG.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Alfreton Town 33%, draw 25%, Merthyr Town 42%.
GG/NG: GG (62%) at 1.45.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (64%, odds 1.50). Most likely score in line with that pick: Alfreton Town 1–1 Merthyr Town. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Alfreton Town33%fair 3.01 · @2.55
Draw25%fair 3.97 · @3.40
Merthyr Town42%fair 2.40 · @2.40
2.96Expected goals
1.35Alfreton Town xG
1.61Merthyr Town xG
62%Both score
58%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–111%
1–29%
0–18%
2–18%
1–07%
0–27%
From our goals model: Alfreton Town 1.4 – 1.6 Merthyr Town expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Merthyr Town to win✗
42%
2.40
2.40
Double chance
Either team to win✓
75%
1.34
1.22
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
62%
1.61
1.45
Draw no bet
Merthyr Town (draw no bet)✗
56%
1.80
–
Asian handicap
Alfreton Town +1 (Asian handicap)✓
72%
1.39
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
79%
1.27
1.18
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
58%
1.74
1.60
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
64%
1.57
1.50
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✗
82%
1.22
–
First team to score
Merthyr Town to score first✓
51%
1.94
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
40%
2.51
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Merthyr Town / FT Merthyr Town✗
26%
3.84
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
9%
11.04
–
Recent results
Alfreton Town
No recent results on record.
Merthyr Town
No recent results on record.
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Alfreton Town and Merthyr Town.
What is the prediction for Alfreton Town vs Merthyr Town?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 64% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.50.
Who will win Alfreton Town vs Merthyr Town?
On our numbers Alfreton Town have a 33% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Merthyr Town 42%.
How many goals will there be in Alfreton Town vs Merthyr Town?
We expect about 3.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 58% likely and both teams score 62% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Alfreton Town vs Merthyr Town?
Our predicted score is Alfreton Town 1–1 Merthyr Town, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.0 goals in total.
When is Alfreton Town vs Merthyr Town?
Alfreton Town vs Merthyr Town (National League North) kicks off on Saturday 21 February 2026 at 16:00 (West Africa Time) at The Impact Arena.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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