Bedford Town 36%Draw 25%Chorley 40%Expected goals 1.54 – 1.38
63%
Betarazi pick
Under 3.5 goals
Good pick · fair odds 1.59 · bookmaker 1.57 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.57Odds
1
Value bet: Bedford Town to win @ 3.10 – our chance 36% vs 32% implied by the price (edge +10%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultChorley to win ✗40% · @2.00
Double chanceEither team to win ✓75% · @1.20
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗64% · @1.44
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓79% · fair 1.27
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗8% · fair 12.62
Bedford Town vs Chorley: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Chorley travel to face Bedford Town on Saturday 21 February in the National League North, with The New Eyrie the venue – the ball rolls at 16:00 WAT. In the table, Bedford Town are 10th, upper half, on 22 points after 14 matches; Chorley are 13th (lower half) with 20. Only 2 points split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Bedford Town 1.5 xG, Chorley 1.4 xG – a total near 2.9. That is an open game on paper: 58% for three or more goals, 64% for GG.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Bedford Town 36%, draw 25%, Chorley 40%.
GG/NG: GG (64%) at 1.44.
Price worth noting: Bedford Town to win @3.10 – the bookmaker implies 32%, our ratings say 36%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (63%, odds 1.57). Most likely score in line with that pick: Bedford Town 1–1 Chorley. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Bedford Town36%fair 2.81 · @3.10
Draw25%fair 4.07 · @3.60
Chorley40%fair 2.51 · @2.00
2.92Expected goals
1.54Bedford Town xG
1.38Chorley xG
64%Both score
58%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–111%
2–19%
1–08%
1–28%
0–17%
2–06%
From our goals model: Bedford Town 1.5 – 1.4 Chorley expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Chorley to win✗
40%
2.51
2.00
Double chance
Either team to win✓
75%
1.33
1.20
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
64%
1.57
1.44
Draw no bet
Chorley (draw no bet)✗
53%
1.89
–
Asian handicap
Chorley +1 (Asian handicap)✗
74%
1.35
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
79%
1.27
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
58%
1.71
1.53
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
63%
1.59
1.57
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
79%
1.26
1.22
First team to score
Bedford Town to score first✓
50%
2.01
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
40%
2.48
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Bedford Town / FT Bedford Town✓
24%
4.10
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
8%
12.62
–
Recent results
Bedford Town
No recent results on record.
Chorley – last 1
D
17 Feb
@ AFC Telford United
2–2
D
2.0Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
100%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Bedford Town and Chorley.
What is the prediction for Bedford Town vs Chorley?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 63% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.57.
Who will win Bedford Town vs Chorley?
On our numbers Bedford Town have a 36% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Chorley 40%.
How many goals will there be in Bedford Town vs Chorley?
We expect about 2.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 58% likely and both teams score 64% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Bedford Town vs Chorley?
Our predicted score is Bedford Town 1–1 Chorley, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.9 goals in total.
When is Bedford Town vs Chorley?
Bedford Town vs Chorley (National League North) kicks off on Saturday 21 February 2026 at 16:00 (West Africa Time) at The New Eyrie.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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