Double chancePersebaya Surabaya or draw ✗80% · @1.10
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓55% · @1.77
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓73% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.45
Persebaya Surabaya vs Persepam Madura Utd: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Persepam Madura Utd travel to face Persebaya Surabaya on Friday 17 April in the Liga 1, with Gelora Bung Tomo Stadium the venue – the ball rolls at 13:00 WAT. In the table, Persebaya Surabaya are 8th, upper half, on 13 points after 9 matches; Persepam Madura Utd are 4th (among the top four) with 19.
Current form
Persebaya Surabaya, last 4: WDWL Their latest outing: 1–0 win over Persita, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 1 lost from 4. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 1.0 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 2 clean sheets in that run.
Persepam Madura Utd, last 5: WLLLD Their latest outing: 2–1 win over Persik Kediri, at home. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 2.5 conceded per game.
Momentum favours Persebaya Surabaya, collecting 1.8 points per game to 0.8 for Persepam Madura Utd.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Persebaya Surabaya 1.6 xG, Persepam Madura Utd 0.9 xG – a total near 2.6. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 50%, GG 55%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Persebaya Surabaya 55%, draw 25%, Persepam Madura Utd 20%.
GG/NG: GG (55%) at 1.77.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (73%, odds 1.25). Most likely score in line with that pick: Persebaya Surabaya 1–1 Persepam Madura Utd. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Persebaya Surabaya55%fair 1.81 · @1.60
Draw25%fair 3.96 · @3.60
Persepam Madura Utd20%fair 5.10 · @5.00
2.57Expected goals
1.64Persebaya Surabaya xG
0.93Persepam Madura Utd xG
55%Both score
50%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–013%
1–112%
2–010%
2–110%
0–08%
0–17%
From our goals model: Persebaya Surabaya 1.6 – 0.9 Persepam Madura Utd expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Persebaya Surabaya to win✗
55%
1.81
1.60
Double chance
Persebaya Surabaya or draw✗
80%
1.24
1.10
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
55%
1.81
1.77
Draw no bet
Persebaya Surabaya (draw no bet)✗
74%
1.36
–
Asian handicap
Persepam Madura Utd +1 (Asian handicap)✓
61%
1.63
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
73%
1.36
1.25
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
50%
1.98
1.93
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
72%
1.40
1.35
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
88%
1.13
–
First team to score
Persebaya Surabaya to score first✗
59%
1.70
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
43%
2.35
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Persebaya Surabaya / FT Persebaya Surabaya✗
33%
3.04
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
10%
10.45
–
Recent results
Persebaya Surabaya – last 4
WDWL
4 Apr
vs Persita
1–0
W
2 Mar
vs Persib Bandung
2–2
D
25 Feb
vs PSM Makassar
1–0
W
14 Feb
vs Bhayangkara FC
1–2
L
1.3Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Persepam Madura Utd – last 6
WLLLDD
11 Apr
vs Persik Kediri
2–1
W
5 Apr
vs Pusamania Borneo
1–3
L
3 Mar
vs Malut United
1–2
L
26 Feb
@ Persib Bandung
0–5
L
21 Feb
vs Arema FC
2–2
D
13 Feb
@ Persis Solo
2–2
D
1.3Scored / game
2.5Conceded / game
83%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Persebaya Surabaya and Persepam Madura Utd.
What is the prediction for Persebaya Surabaya vs Persepam Madura Utd?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 73% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Persebaya Surabaya vs Persepam Madura Utd?
On our numbers Persebaya Surabaya have a 55% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Persepam Madura Utd 20%.
How many goals will there be in Persebaya Surabaya vs Persepam Madura Utd?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 50% likely and both teams score 55% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Persebaya Surabaya vs Persepam Madura Utd?
Our predicted score is Persebaya Surabaya 1–1 Persepam Madura Utd, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Persebaya Surabaya vs Persepam Madura Utd?
Persebaya Surabaya vs Persepam Madura Utd (Liga 1) kicks off on Friday 17 April 2026 at 13:00 (West Africa Time) at Gelora Bung Tomo Stadium.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
