Value bet: Persebaya Surabaya to win @ 2.85 – our chance 38% vs 35% implied by the price (edge +9%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultPersebaya Surabaya to win ✓38% · @2.85
Double chanceEither team to win ✓75% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗60% · @1.65
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓74% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗9% · fair 11.45
Arema FC vs Persebaya Surabaya: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Persebaya Surabaya travel to face Arema FC on Tuesday 28 April in the Liga 1, with Stadion Kanjuruhan the venue – the ball rolls at 09:30 WAT. In the table, Arema FC are 14th, lower half, on 9 points after 9 matches; Persebaya Surabaya are 8th (upper half) with 13.
Current form
Arema FC, last 5: DWWDL Their latest outing: 0–0 draw with Persib Bandung, away. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 1.2 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Persebaya Surabaya, last 5: WLWDW Their latest outing: 2–0 win over Malut United, away. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 1.0 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Arema FC 1.2 xG, Persebaya Surabaya 1.4 xG – a total near 2.7. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 51%, GG 60%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Arema FC 37%, draw 25%, Persebaya Surabaya 38%.
GG/NG: GG (60%) at 1.65.
Price worth noting: Persebaya Surabaya to win @2.85 – the bookmaker implies 35%, our ratings say 38%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (74%, odds 1.25). Most likely score in line with that pick: Arema FC 1–1 Persebaya Surabaya. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Arema FC37%fair 2.73 · @2.20
Draw25%fair 3.99 · @3.40
Persebaya Surabaya38%fair 2.61 · @2.85
2.65Expected goals
1.24Arema FC xG
1.42Persebaya Surabaya xG
60%Both score
51%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–112%
0–110%
1–29%
1–09%
2–18%
0–27%
From our goals model: Arema FC 1.2 – 1.4 Persebaya Surabaya expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Persebaya Surabaya to win✓
38%
2.61
2.85 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
75%
1.33
1.22
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
60%
1.67
1.65
Draw no bet
Persebaya Surabaya (draw no bet)✓
51%
1.95
–
Asian handicap
Arema FC +1 (Asian handicap)✗
75%
1.33
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
74%
1.35
1.25
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
51%
1.98
1.80
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
71%
1.41
1.35
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
87%
1.15
–
First team to score
Persebaya Surabaya to score first✓
50%
2.02
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
43%
2.35
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Persebaya Surabaya / FT Persebaya Surabaya✗
24%
4.15
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
9%
11.45
–
Recent results
Arema FC – last 6
DWWDLL
24 Apr
@ Persib Bandung
0–0
D
18 Apr
vs Persis Solo
2–0
W
10 Apr
@ Persita
1–0
W
3 Apr
vs Malut United
1–1
D
10 Mar
@ Bhayangkara FC
1–2
L
6 Mar
vs Bali United
3–4
L
1.3Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Persebaya Surabaya – last 6
WLWDWL
23 Apr
@ Malut United
2–0
W
17 Apr
vs Persepam Madura Utd
1–2
L
4 Apr
vs Persita
1–0
W
2 Mar
vs Persib Bandung
2–2
D
25 Feb
vs PSM Makassar
1–0
W
14 Feb
vs Bhayangkara FC
1–2
L
1.3Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Arema FC and Persebaya Surabaya.
What is the prediction for Arema FC vs Persebaya Surabaya?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 74% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Arema FC vs Persebaya Surabaya?
On our numbers Arema FC have a 37% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Persebaya Surabaya 38%.
How many goals will there be in Arema FC vs Persebaya Surabaya?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 51% likely and both teams score 60% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Arema FC vs Persebaya Surabaya?
Our predicted score is Arema FC 1–1 Persebaya Surabaya, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.
When is Arema FC vs Persebaya Surabaya?
Arema FC vs Persebaya Surabaya (Liga 1) kicks off on Tuesday 28 April 2026 at 09:30 (West Africa Time) at Stadion Kanjuruhan.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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