Good pick · fair odds 1.58 · bookmaker 1.75 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.75Odds
Picks by market
ResultMortágua to win ✓63% · @1.75
Double chanceMortágua or draw ✓87% · @1.12
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗61% · fair 1.63
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓81% · fair 1.23
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗18% · fair 5.65
Mortágua vs Peniche: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
16:00 WAT, Sunday 22 February: Mortágua v Peniche in the Campeonato De Portugal Prio Group C, played at Campo Gandarada.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Mortágua 1.6 xG, Peniche 0.6 xG – a total near 2.2. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 39%, GG 39%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Mortágua 63%, draw 24%, Peniche 13%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Mortágua to win (63%, odds 1.75 – longer than our fair 1.58, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Mortágua 1–0 Peniche. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Mortágua63%fair 1.58 · @1.75
Draw24%fair 4.16 · @3.10
Peniche13%fair 7.90 · @4.60
2.23Expected goals
1.65Mortágua xG
0.58Peniche xG
39%Both score
39%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–018%
2–015%
0–011%
1–110%
2–19%
3–08%
From our goals model: Mortágua 1.6 – 0.6 Peniche expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Mortágua to win✓
63%
1.58
1.75 ▲
Double chance
Mortágua or draw✓
87%
1.14
1.12
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✗
61%
1.63
–
Draw no bet
Mortágua (draw no bet)✓
83%
1.20
–
Asian handicap
Mortágua -0.5 (Asian handicap)✓
63%
1.58
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
65%
1.53
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
61%
1.64
1.53
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
81%
1.23
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
92%
1.08
–
First team to score
Mortágua to score first✓
66%
1.52
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
45%
2.23
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Mortágua / FT Mortágua✓
39%
2.54
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
18%
5.65
–
Recent results
Mortágua – last 1
W
15 Feb
@ Oliveira Hospital
1–0
W
1.0Scored / game
0.0Conceded / game
0%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Peniche
No recent results on record.
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Mortágua and Peniche.
Our pick is Mortágua to win with a 63% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.75.
Who will win Mortágua vs Peniche?
On our numbers Mortágua have a 63% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Peniche 13%.
How many goals will there be in Mortágua vs Peniche?
We expect about 2.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 39% likely and both teams score 39% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Mortágua vs Peniche?
Our predicted score is Mortágua 1–0 Peniche, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.2 goals in total.
When is Mortágua vs Peniche?
Mortágua vs Peniche (Campeonato De Portugal Prio Group C) kicks off on Sunday 22 February 2026 at 16:00 (West Africa Time) at Campo Gandarada.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Samora Correir2