Value bet: Bari to win @ 2.94 – our chance 39% vs 34% implied by the price (edge +15%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultBari to win ✓39% · @2.94
Double chanceEither team to win ✓73% · @1.28
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓57% · @1.77
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓77% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✓9% · fair 11.60
Bari vs Empoli: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Wednesday 4 March the Serie B brings Bari against Empoli at Stadio San Nicola. Kick-off: 20:00 WAT.
Current form
Bari, last 3: WDL Their latest outing: 2–0 win over Sampdoria, away. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 1.0 conceded per game.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Bari 1.3 xG, Empoli 1.0 xG – a total near 2.4. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 43%, GG 57%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Bari 39%, draw 27%, Empoli 34%.
GG/NG: GG (57%) at 1.77.
Price worth noting: Bari to win @2.94 – the bookmaker implies 34%, our ratings say 39%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (77%, odds 1.25). Most likely score in line with that pick: Bari 1–1 Empoli. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Bari39%fair 2.56 · @2.94
Draw27%fair 3.70 · @3.20
Empoli34%fair 2.94 · @2.40
2.36Expected goals
1.33Bari xG
1.03Empoli xG
57%Both score
43%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–113%
1–013%
0–110%
0–09%
2–19%
2–08%
From our goals model: Bari 1.3 – 1.0 Empoli expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Bari to win✓
39%
2.56
2.94 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
73%
1.37
1.28
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
57%
1.75
1.77
Draw no bet
Bari (draw no bet)✓
53%
1.87
–
Asian handicap
Empoli +1 (Asian handicap)
74%
1.36
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
68%
1.46
1.38
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
57%
1.77
1.70
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
77%
1.30
1.25
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
89%
1.12
1.08
First team to score
Bari to score first
51%
1.96
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
45%
2.20
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Bari / FT Bari✗
25%
3.94
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✓
9%
11.60
–
Recent results
Bari – last 3
WDL
27 Feb
@ Sampdoria
2–0
W
21 Feb
@ Padova
1–1
D
15 Feb
vs Sudtirol
1–2
L
1.3Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
67%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Empoli – last 2
DD
20 Feb
@ Frosinone
2–2
D
15 Feb
vs Reggiana
1–1
D
1.5Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
100%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Bari and Empoli.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 77% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Bari vs Empoli?
On our numbers Bari have a 39% chance of winning, the draw 27% and Empoli 34%.
How many goals will there be in Bari vs Empoli?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 43% likely and both teams score 57% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Bari vs Empoli?
Our predicted score is Bari 1–1 Empoli, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Bari vs Empoli?
Bari vs Empoli (Serie B) kicks off on Wednesday 4 March 2026 at 20:00 (West Africa Time) at Stadio San Nicola.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Frosinone2
Pescara2