Avellino v Sudtirol Prediction & Expected Goals (18 Mar) – Odds, Stats, Pick

Picks by market

ResultAvellino to win ✓40% · @2.84

Double chanceEither team to win ✓72% · @1.33

Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗50% · @1.83

GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗78% · @1.22

Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗12% · fair 8.28

Avellino vs Sudtirol: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

Avellino welcome Sudtirol to Stadio Partenio-Adriano Lombardi for a Serie B fixture on Wednesday 18 March (20:00 WAT). In the table, Avellino are 5th, upper half, on 16 points after 11 matches; Sudtirol are 12th (lower half) with 15. Only 1 point split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.

Current form

Avellino, last 4: WLDL Their latest outing: 2–1 win over Virtus Entella, away. Scoring is the worry: just 0.8 goals a game.

Sudtirol, last 4: DWLW Their latest outing: 0–0 draw with Pescara, at home. Away from home the record reads 2 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.5 scored, 1.0 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 2 clean sheets in that run.

Momentum favours Sudtirol, collecting 1.8 points per game to 1.0 for Avellino.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give Avellino 1.4 xG, Sudtirol 1.1 xG – a total near 2.4. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 43%, GG 50%.

Markets worth a look

1X2 according to our numbers – Avellino 40%, draw 28%, Sudtirol 32%.
GG/NG: NG (50%) at 1.83.
Price worth noting: Avellino to win @2.84 – the bookmaker implies 35%, our ratings say 40%.

Our call before kick-off

Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (78%, odds 1.22). Most likely score in line with that pick: Avellino 1–1 Sudtirol. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

Avellino40%fair 2.49 · @2.84

Draw28%fair 3.59 · @2.92

Sudtirol32%fair 3.12 · @2.66

2.41Expected goals

1.35Avellino xG

1.06Sudtirol xG

50%Both score

43%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

1–113%

1–012%

0–110%

0–09%

2–19%

2–08%

From our goals model: Avellino 1.4 – 1.1 Sudtirol expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

Market	Most likely	Chance	Fair odds	Bookmaker
Match result	Avellino to win ✓	40%	2.49	2.84 ▲
Double chance	Either team to win ✓	72%	1.39	1.33
Both teams to score	Not both teams to score ✗	50%	1.99	1.83
Draw no bet	Avellino (draw no bet) ✓	56%	1.80	–
Asian handicap	Sudtirol +1 (Asian handicap)	74%	1.36	–
Over/under 1.5 goals	Over 1.5 goals ✓	68%	1.47	1.42
Over/under 2.5 goals	Under 2.5 goals ✗	57%	1.74	1.62
Over/under 3.5 goals	Under 3.5 goals ✗	78%	1.29	1.22
Over/under 4.5 goals	Under 4.5 goals ✗	90%	1.12	1.06
First team to score	Avellino to score first ✓	51%	1.96	–
Half-time result	Level at half-time ✗	45%	2.23	–
Half-time / full-time	HT Avellino / FT Avellino ✓	25%	3.96	–
Correct score	Correct score 1–0 ✗	12%	8.28	–

Avellino – last 4

WLDL

15 Mar	@ Virtus Entella	2–1	W
3 Mar	@ Venezia	0–4	L
22 Feb	@ Reggiana	1–1	D
15 Feb	vs Pescara	0–1	L

0.8Scored / game

1.8Conceded / game

50%Both scored

50%Over 2.5

Sudtirol – last 4

DWLW

15 Mar	vs Pescara	0–0	D
3 Mar	@ Reggiana	4–0	W
21 Feb	@ Palermo	0–3	L
15 Feb	@ Bari	2–1	W

1.5Scored / game

1.0Conceded / game

25%Both scored

75%Over 2.5

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Palermo	11	8	3	0	+12	27
2	Modena	11	7	2	2	+10	23
3	Ascoli	11	5	5	1	+10	20
4	Mantova	11	5	4	2	+4	19
5	Avellino	11	4	4	3	+5	16
6	Benevento	11	4	4	3	+4	16
7	Hellas Verona	11	4	4	3	+6	16
8	Pisa	11	4	4	3	+3	16
9	Cremonese	11	4	3	4	+2	15
10	Padova	11	4	3	4	-1	15
11	Cesena	11	3	6	2	-2	15
12	Sudtirol	11	3	6	2	+1	15
13	Juve Stabia	11	4	4	3	+1	12
14	Arezzo	11	3	2	6	-11	11
15	Sampdoria	11	3	2	6	-7	11
16	Virtus Entella	11	2	4	5	-3	10
17	Carrarese	11	3	1	7	-5	10
18	Vicenza Virtus	11	2	3	6	-10	9
19	Empoli	11	2	3	6	-7	9
20	Catanzaro	11	1	3	7	-12	6

Team

Pts

+12

+10

+10

-1

-2

-11

-7

-3

-5

-10

-7

-12

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Avellino vs Sudtirol?

Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 78% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.

Who will win Avellino vs Sudtirol?

On our numbers Avellino have a 40% chance of winning, the draw 28% and Sudtirol 32%.

How many goals will there be in Avellino vs Sudtirol?

We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 43% likely and both teams score 50% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Avellino vs Sudtirol?

Our predicted score is Avellino 1–1 Sudtirol, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.

When is Avellino vs Sudtirol?

Avellino vs Sudtirol (Serie B) kicks off on Wednesday 18 March 2026 at 20:00 (West Africa Time) at Stadio Partenio-Adriano Lombardi.

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.

Avellino v Sudtirol: numbers & prediction