Good pick · fair odds 1.52 · bookmaker 1.38 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.38Odds
1
Value bet: Algeciras to win @ 2.10 – our chance 52% vs 48% implied by the price (edge +9%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultAlgeciras to win ✗52% · @2.10
Double chanceAlgeciras or draw ✓79% · @1.18
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓53% · @1.53
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓83% · fair 1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗17% · fair 5.77
Algeciras vs Teruel: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
18:15 WAT, Sunday 1 March: Algeciras v Teruel in the Primera División RFEF Group 2, played at Estadio Nuevo Mirador. In the table, Algeciras are 13th, lower half, on 14 points after 11 matches; Teruel are 20th (in the drop zone) with 7.
Current form
Teruel, last 3: DWW Their latest outing: 2–2 draw with Juventud Torremolinos, away. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 0.7 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 2 clean sheets in that run.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Algeciras 1.5 xG, Teruel 0.7 xG – a total near 2.1. On paper it is a low-scoring affair, with under 2.5 at 66%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Algeciras 52%, draw 27%, Teruel 21%.
Lower-risk option: Algeciras or draw (79%) at 1.18.
GG/NG: NG (53%) at 1.53.
Price worth noting: Algeciras to win @2.10 – the bookmaker implies 48%, our ratings say 52%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 2.5 goals (66%, odds 1.38). Most likely score in line with that pick: Algeciras 1–0 Teruel. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Algeciras52%fair 1.93 · @2.10
Draw27%fair 3.69 · @2.75
Teruel21%fair 4.75 · @3.75
2.13Expected goals
1.46Algeciras xG
0.67Teruel xG
47%Both score
34%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–017%
2–013%
0–012%
1–112%
2–18%
0–18%
From our goals model: Algeciras 1.5 – 0.7 Teruel expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Algeciras
Teruel
Attack vs Primera División RFEF Group 2 average
+3%
-45%
Goals conceded vs average
+5%
+4%
Our expected goals here
1.77
0.61
Our own ratings from every Primera División RFEF Group 2 result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Algeciras to win✗
52%
1.93
2.10 ▲
Double chance
Algeciras or draw✓
79%
1.27
1.18
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
53%
1.88
1.53
Draw no bet
Algeciras (draw no bet)
71%
1.41
–
Asian handicap
Teruel +1 (Asian handicap)✓
60%
1.66
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
60%
1.66
1.62
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
66%
1.52
1.38
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
83%
1.20
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
93%
1.07
–
First team to score
Algeciras to score first✗
60%
1.66
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
47%
2.13
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Algeciras / FT Algeciras✗
34%
2.97
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
17%
5.77
–
Recent results
Algeciras – last 1
L
22 Feb
@ Marbella
1–4
L
1.0Scored / game
4.0Conceded / game
100%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Teruel – last 3
DWW
25 Feb
@ Juventud Torremolinos
2–2
D
22 Feb
vs Ibiza
1–0
W
15 Feb
@ Sevilla Atletico
1–0
W
1.3Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Algeciras and Teruel.
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 66% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.38.
Who will win Algeciras vs Teruel?
On our numbers Algeciras have a 52% chance of winning, the draw 27% and Teruel 21%.
How many goals will there be in Algeciras vs Teruel?
We expect about 2.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 34% likely and both teams score 47% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Algeciras vs Teruel?
Our predicted score is Algeciras 1–0 Teruel, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.1 goals in total.
When is Algeciras vs Teruel?
Algeciras vs Teruel (Primera División RFEF Group 2) kicks off on Sunday 1 March 2026 at 18:15 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Nuevo Mirador.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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