Mérida AD 45%Draw 27%Cacereño 28%Expected goals 1.39 – 0.94
79%
Betarazi pick
Under 3.5 goals
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.27 · bookmaker 1.20 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.20Odds
Picks by market
ResultMérida AD to win ✓45% · @2.10
Double chanceEither team to win ✓73% · @1.28
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗53% · @1.85
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓79% · @1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 11.33
Mérida AD vs Cacereño: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Cacereño travel to face Mérida AD on Sunday 22 February in the Primera División RFEF Group 1, with Estadio Romano Jose Fouto the venue – the ball rolls at 16:00 WAT. In the table, Mérida AD are 8th, upper half, on 16 points after 11 matches; Cacereño are 10th (upper half) with 15. Only 1 point split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Mérida AD 1.4 xG, Cacereño 0.9 xG – a total near 2.3. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 42%, GG 53%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Mérida AD 45%, draw 27%, Cacereño 28%.
GG/NG: GG (53%) at 1.85.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (79%, odds 1.20). Most likely score in line with that pick: Mérida AD 1–0 Cacereño. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Mérida AD45%fair 2.22 · @2.10
Draw27%fair 3.67 · @3.10
Cacereño28%fair 3.62 · @3.35
2.33Expected goals
1.39Mérida AD xG
0.94Cacereño xG
53%Both score
42%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–014%
1–113%
0–010%
2–09%
0–19%
2–19%
From our goals model: Mérida AD 1.4 – 0.9 Cacereño expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Mérida AD
Cacereño
Attack vs Primera División RFEF Group 1 average
+18%
-27%
Goals conceded vs average
+4%
-17%
Our expected goals here
1.36
0.82
Our own ratings from every Primera División RFEF Group 1 result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Mérida AD to win✓
45%
2.22
2.10
Double chance
Either team to win✓
73%
1.37
1.28
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
53%
1.90
1.85
Draw no bet
Mérida AD (draw no bet)✓
62%
1.61
–
Asian handicap
Cacereño +1 (Asian handicap)
70%
1.43
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
67%
1.49
1.40
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
58%
1.72
1.62
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
79%
1.27
1.20
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
91%
1.10
–
First team to score
Mérida AD to score first✓
54%
1.86
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
46%
2.20
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Mérida AD / FT Mérida AD✓
28%
3.60
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
11.33
–
Recent results
Mérida AD
No recent results on record.
Cacereño
No recent results on record.
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Mérida AD and Cacereño.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 79% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Mérida AD vs Cacereño?
On our numbers Mérida AD have a 45% chance of winning, the draw 27% and Cacereño 28%.
How many goals will there be in Mérida AD vs Cacereño?
We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 42% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Mérida AD vs Cacereño?
Our predicted score is Mérida AD 1–0 Cacereño, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.3 goals in total.
When is Mérida AD vs Cacereño?
Mérida AD vs Cacereño (Primera División RFEF Group 1) kicks off on Sunday 22 February 2026 at 16:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Romano Jose Fouto.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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