Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓53% · @1.57
GoalsUnder 2.5 goals ✓69% · @1.42
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗16% · fair 6.36
Ourense CF vs Ponferradina: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
11:00 WAT, Sunday 29 March: Ourense CF v Ponferradina in the Primera División RFEF Group 1, played at Estadio de O Couto.
Current form
Ponferradina, last 3: DWW Their latest outing: 0–0 draw with Cacereño, away. Scoring is the worry: just 0.7 goals a game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Ourense CF 1.0 xG, Ponferradina 0.8 xG – a total near 1.8. On paper it is a low-scoring affair, with under 2.5 at 69%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to stay under 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Ourense CF 36%, draw 33%, Ponferradina 31%.
Lower-risk option: Ourense CF or draw (69%) at 1.25.
GG/NG: NG (53%) at 1.57.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 2.5 goals (69%, odds 1.42). Most likely score in line with that pick: Ourense CF 0–0 Ponferradina. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Ourense CF36%fair 2.75 · @2.33
Draw33%fair 3.08 · @2.80
Ponferradina31%fair 3.22 · @3.20
1.81Expected goals
0.96Ourense CF xG
0.85Ponferradina xG
47%Both score
31%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
0–016%
1–016%
0–114%
1–113%
2–08%
2–16%
From our goals model: Ourense CF 1.0 – 0.8 Ponferradina expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Ourense CF
Ponferradina
Attack vs Primera División RFEF Group 1 average
-11%
-33%
Goals conceded vs average
-8%
-37%
Our expected goals here
0.77
0.66
Our own ratings from every Primera División RFEF Group 1 result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Ourense CF to win✗
36%
2.75
2.33
Double chance
Ourense CF or draw✓
69%
1.45
1.25
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
53%
1.87
1.57
Draw no bet
Ourense CF (draw no bet)
54%
1.85
–
Asian handicap
Ponferradina +0.5 (Asian handicap)✓
63%
1.58
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
57%
1.76
1.57
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
69%
1.45
1.42
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
89%
1.12
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
96%
1.04
–
First team to score
Ourense CF to score first✗
45%
2.25
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
52%
1.91
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Draw / FT Draw✓
24%
4.13
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
16%
6.36
–
Recent results
Ourense CF – last 2
LL
8 Mar
@ Barakaldo
0–1
L
22 Feb
@ Guadalajara
0–1
L
0.0Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
0%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Ponferradina – last 3
DWW
15 Mar
@ Cacereño
0–0
D
1 Mar
@ Real Madrid II
1–0
W
20 Feb
vs CF Talavera
1–0
W
0.7Scored / game
0.0Conceded / game
0%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Ourense CF and Ponferradina.
What is the prediction for Ourense CF vs Ponferradina?
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 69% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.42.
Who will win Ourense CF vs Ponferradina?
On our numbers Ourense CF have a 36% chance of winning, the draw 33% and Ponferradina 31%.
How many goals will there be in Ourense CF vs Ponferradina?
We expect about 1.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 31% likely and both teams score 47% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Ourense CF vs Ponferradina?
Our predicted score is Ourense CF 0–0 Ponferradina, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 1.8 goals in total.
When is Ourense CF vs Ponferradina?
Ourense CF vs Ponferradina (Primera División RFEF Group 1) kicks off on Sunday 29 March 2026 at 11:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio de O Couto.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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