Good pick · fair odds 1.50 · bookmaker 1.42 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.42Odds
1
Value bet: Lugo to win @ 2.45 – our chance 44% vs 41% implied by the price (edge +7%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultLugo to win ✗44% · @2.45
Double chanceEither team to win ✓73% · @1.28
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓54% · @1.90
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗79% · @1.18
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 11.19
Lugo vs Zamora: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Lugo welcome Zamora to Estadio Anxo Carro for a Primera División RFEF Group 1 fixture on Sunday 10 May (13:15 WAT). In the table, Lugo are 1st, leading the league, on 28 points after 11 matches; Zamora are 16th (lower half) with 12. There are 16 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
Lugo, last 5: LWDWW Their latest outing: 0–1 defeat to Osasuna II, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 1 lost from 4. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 0.6 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 2 clean sheets in that run.
Zamora, last 5: WLWDL Their latest outing: 1–0 win over Osasuna II, at home. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 1.2 conceded per game.
Momentum favours Lugo, collecting 2.0 points per game to 1.3 for Zamora.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Lugo 1.4 xG, Zamora 0.9 xG – a total near 2.3. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 41%, GG 54%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to stay under 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Lugo 44%, draw 27%, Zamora 30%.
GG/NG: GG (54%) at 1.90.
Price worth noting: Lugo to win @2.45 – the bookmaker implies 41%, our ratings say 44%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (67%, odds 1.42). Most likely score in line with that pick: Lugo 1–1 Zamora. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Lugo44%fair 2.28 · @2.45
Draw27%fair 3.76 · @3.00
Zamora30%fair 3.38 · @2.80
2.33Expected goals
1.42Lugo xG
0.90Zamora xG
54%Both score
41%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–014%
1–113%
2–010%
0–010%
2–19%
0–19%
From our goals model: Lugo 1.4 – 0.9 Zamora expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Lugo
Zamora
Attack vs Primera División RFEF Group 1 average
+24%
-12%
Goals conceded vs average
-21%
-4%
Our expected goals here
1.64
0.75
Our own ratings from every Primera División RFEF Group 1 result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Lugo to win✗
44%
2.28
2.45 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
73%
1.36
1.28
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
54%
1.84
1.90
Draw no bet
Lugo (draw no bet)✗
60%
1.67
–
Asian handicap
Zamora +1 (Asian handicap)✓
68%
1.48
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
67%
1.50
1.42
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
59%
1.69
1.57
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
79%
1.27
1.18
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
91%
1.10
–
First team to score
Lugo to score first
55%
1.81
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
45%
2.20
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Lugo / FT Lugo✗
29%
3.43
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
11.19
–
Recent results
Lugo – last 5
LWDWW
5 Apr
vs Osasuna II
0–1
L
29 Mar
@ Cacereño
2–1
W
22 Mar
vs Arenas Getxo
1–1
D
27 Feb
vs Athletic Club II
1–0
W
15 Feb
vs Guadalajara
2–0
W
1.2Scored / game
0.6Conceded / game
40%Both scored
20%Over 2.5
Zamora – last 6
WLWDLD
19 Apr
vs Osasuna II
1–0
W
5 Apr
vs Unionistas de Salamanca
2–3
L
8 Mar
@ Real Avilés
2–0
W
1 Mar
vs Guadalajara
1–1
D
21 Feb
@ Athletic Club II
0–1
L
15 Feb
vs Barakaldo
2–2
D
1.3Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Lugo and Zamora.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 67% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.42.
Who will win Lugo vs Zamora?
On our numbers Lugo have a 44% chance of winning, the draw 27% and Zamora 30%.
How many goals will there be in Lugo vs Zamora?
We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 41% likely and both teams score 54% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Lugo vs Zamora?
Our predicted score is Lugo 1–1 Zamora, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.3 goals in total.
When is Lugo vs Zamora?
Lugo vs Zamora (Primera División RFEF Group 1) kicks off on Sunday 10 May 2026 at 13:15 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Anxo Carro.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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