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BetaraziFootball predictions · read by the numbers

Águilas v Lorca Deportiva: numbers & prediction

Segunda División RFEF Group 4 · Spain · Estadio El Rubial

Águilas

WWWLD
Sun 19 Apr 2026

Lorca Deportiva

DLLWL
Águilas 54%Draw 25%Lorca Deportiva 21% Expected goals 1.25 – 0.85
54%
Betarazi pick

Águilas to win

Fair pick · fair odds 1.85 · bookmaker 1.44

4/10Rating
1.44Odds

Picks by market

ResultÁguilas to win54% · @1.44
Double chanceÁguilas or draw79% · @1.10
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score52% · @1.44
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals84% · fair 1.19
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–015% · fair 6.55

Águilas vs Lorca Deportiva: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

Águilas welcome Lorca Deportiva to Estadio El Rubial for a Segunda División RFEF Group 4 fixture on Sunday 19 April (18:00 WAT).

Current form

Águilas, last 5: WWWLD Their latest outing: 1–0 win over Melilla, away. In their own stadium the record reads 3 won, 0 lost from 4. Goals for and against: 1.8 scored, 0.8 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.

Lorca Deportiva, last 5: DLLWL Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Almería II, away. Away from home the record reads 0 won, 2 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.7 goals a game.

Momentum favours Águilas, collecting 2.2 points per game to 1.2 for Lorca Deportiva.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give Águilas 1.3 xG, Lorca Deportiva 0.9 xG – a total near 2.1. On paper it is a low-scoring affair, with under 2.5 at 65%.

Markets worth a look

  • 1X2 according to our numbers – Águilas 54%, draw 25%, Lorca Deportiva 21%.
  • GG/NG: NG (52%) at 1.44.

Our call before kick-off

Our pre-match call was Águilas to win (54%, odds 1.44). Most likely score in line with that pick: Águilas 1–0 Lorca Deportiva. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

Águilas54%fair 1.85 · @1.44
Draw25%fair 4.00 · @3.80
Lorca Deportiva21%fair 4.80 · @6.50
2.11Expected goals
1.25Águilas xG
0.85Lorca Deportiva xG
48%Both score
35%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

1–015%
1–113%
0–012%
0–110%
2–010%
2–18%

From our goals model: Águilas 1.3 – 0.9 Lorca Deportiva expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

MarketMost likelyChanceFair oddsBookmaker
Match resultÁguilas to win54%1.851.44
Double chanceÁguilas or draw79%1.261.10
Both teams to scoreNot both teams to score52%1.911.44
Draw no betÁguilas (draw no bet)72%1.38–
Asian handicapLorca Deportiva +1 (Asian handicap)73%1.38–
Over/under 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals62%1.61–
Over/under 2.5 goalsUnder 2.5 goals65%1.54–
Over/under 3.5 goalsUnder 3.5 goals84%1.19–
Over/under 4.5 goalsUnder 4.5 goals94%1.07–
First team to scoreÁguilas to score first52%1.91–
Half-time resultLevel at half-time48%2.07–
Half-time / full-timeHT Águilas / FT Águilas26%3.80–
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–015%6.55–

Recent results

Águilas – last 6

WWWLDW
12 Apr@ Melilla1–0W
5 Aprvs Xerez Deportivo3–0W
8 Marvs Puente Genil3–1W
1 Mar@ Real Jaén1–3L
25 Febvs Recreativo Huelva0–0D
22 Febvs Málaga II3–1W
1.8Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
50%Both scored
67%Over 2.5

Lorca Deportiva – last 6

DLLWLW
5 Apr@ Almería II1–1D
22 Mar@ Melilla1–2L
15 Marvs Estepona0–2L
8 Marvs Xerez Deportivo1–0W
1 Mar@ Extremadura 19240–3L
22 Febvs Antoniano1–0W
0.7Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5

Head to head

No previous meetings on record between Águilas and Lorca Deportiva.

Águilas vs Lorca Deportiva head-to-head page →

More Segunda División RFEF Group 4 predictions

League hub
– Recreativo Huelva1 Melilla0 151%1.64X27%3.20221%5.10 1.4–0.9xG U2.5Under 2.5 goals 60%@1.50
FT Deportiva Minera2 Xerez Deportivo1 157%1.57X27%3.35216%5.25 1.5–0.7xG U2.5Under 2.5 goals 60%@1.55 ✗
FT La Unión Atlético4 Ucam Murcia1 134%2.95X25%3.10241%2.20 1.4–1.5xG U2.5Under 2.5 goals 51%@1.60 ✗
– Real Jaén2 Puente Genil0 158%1.50X26%3.50217%6.00 1.5–0.8xG 1Real Jaén to win 58%@1.50
– Xerez0 Extremadura 19240 138%2.35X28%2.88234%3.00 1.2–1.1xG U2.5Under 2.5 goals 61%@1.50
– Yeclano0 Almería II0 158%1.25X25%4.75217%12.00 1.2–0.7xG 1Yeclano to win 58%@1.25

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Águilas vs Lorca Deportiva?

Our pick is Águilas to win with a 54% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.44.

Who will win Águilas vs Lorca Deportiva?

On our numbers Águilas have a 54% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Lorca Deportiva 21%.

How many goals will there be in Águilas vs Lorca Deportiva?

We expect about 2.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 35% likely and both teams score 48% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Águilas vs Lorca Deportiva?

Our predicted score is Águilas 1–0 Lorca Deportiva, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.1 goals in total.

When is Águilas vs Lorca Deportiva?

Águilas vs Lorca Deportiva (Segunda División RFEF Group 4) kicks off on Sunday 19 April 2026 at 18:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio El Rubial.

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.