Value bet: Alcione to win @ 3.85 – our chance 34% vs 26% implied by the price (edge +29%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultNovara to win ✓39% · @2.05
Double chanceEither team to win ✓72% · @1.33
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓57% · fair 1.75
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓81% · fair 1.23
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗12% · fair 8.61
Novara vs Alcione: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Sunday 22 March the Serie C Girone A brings Novara against Alcione at Stadio Silvio Piola. Kick-off: 14:30 WAT. In the table, Novara are 14th, lower half, on 13 points after 13 matches; Alcione are 8th (upper half) with 18.
Current form
Novara, last 5: DWDWW Their latest outing: 0–0 draw with Lecco, away. Goals for and against: 1.4 scored, 0.4 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Alcione, last 3: DDW Their latest outing: 0–0 draw with Union Brescia, at home. Scoring is the worry: just 0.7 goals a game. Defensively they have kept 2 clean sheets in that run.
Momentum favours Novara, collecting 2.2 points per game to 1.7 for Alcione.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Novara 1.1 xG, Alcione 1.2 xG – a total near 2.2. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 38%, GG 43%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to stay under 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Novara 39%, draw 28%, Alcione 34%.
Price worth noting: Alcione to win @3.85 – the bookmaker implies 26%, our ratings say 34%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Either team to win (72%, odds 1.33). Most likely score in line with that pick: Novara 0–1 Alcione. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Novara39%fair 2.60 · @2.05
Draw28%fair 3.58 · @2.80
Alcione34%fair 2.98 · @3.85
2.23Expected goals
1.08Novara xG
1.15Alcione xG
43%Both score
38%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–113%
0–112%
1–012%
0–011%
1–28%
2–17%
From our goals model: Novara 1.1 – 1.2 Alcione expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Novara
Alcione
Attack vs Serie C Girone A average
-21%
+14%
Goals conceded vs average
+6%
+9%
Our expected goals here
1.10
1.50
Our own ratings from every Serie C Girone A result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Novara to win✓
39%
2.60
2.05
Double chance
Either team to win✓
72%
1.39
1.33
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
57%
1.75
–
Draw no bet
Novara (draw no bet)✓
53%
1.87
–
Asian handicap
Novara +0.5 (Asian handicap)✓
63%
1.60
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
65%
1.53
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
62%
1.62
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
81%
1.23
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
92%
1.08
–
First team to score
Alcione to score first✗
46%
2.17
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
47%
2.12
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Alcione / FT Alcione✗
21%
4.73
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
12%
8.61
–
Recent results
Novara – last 5
DWDWW
15 Mar
@ Lecco
0–0
D
3 Mar
@ Virtus Verona
2–0
W
27 Feb
@ Arzignano Valchiampo
1–1
D
21 Feb
vs Giana Erminio
3–1
W
15 Feb
@ Triestina
1–0
W
1.4Scored / game
0.4Conceded / game
40%Both scored
20%Over 2.5
Alcione – last 3
DDW
13 Mar
vs Union Brescia
0–0
D
3 Mar
vs Giana Erminio
1–1
D
15 Feb
@ Vicenza Virtus
1–0
W
0.7Scored / game
0.3Conceded / game
33%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Novara and Alcione.
Our pick is Either team to win with a 72% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.33.
Who will win Novara vs Alcione?
On our numbers Novara have a 39% chance of winning, the draw 28% and Alcione 34%.
How many goals will there be in Novara vs Alcione?
We expect about 2.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 38% likely and both teams score 43% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Novara vs Alcione?
Our predicted score is Novara 0–1 Alcione, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.2 goals in total.
When is Novara vs Alcione?
Novara vs Alcione (Serie C Girone A) kicks off on Sunday 22 March 2026 at 14:30 (West Africa Time) at Stadio Silvio Piola.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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