Value bet: Cittadella to win @ 2.75 – our chance 43% vs 36% implied by the price (edge +19%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultCittadella to win ✓43% · @2.75
Double chanceEither team to win ✓73% · @1.28
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗55% · @1.75
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓78% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗9% · fair 11.47
Novara vs Cittadella: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
13:30 WAT, Sunday 19 April: Novara v Cittadella in the Serie C Girone A, played at Stadio Silvio Piola. In the table, Novara are 14th, lower half, on 13 points after 13 matches; Cittadella are 1st (leading the league) with 31. There are 18 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
Novara, last 5: LWDWD Their latest outing: 1–3 defeat to Lumezzane, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.7 scored, 0.8 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Cittadella, last 5: LWLWD Their latest outing: 1–2 defeat to Union Brescia, away. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 1.3 conceded per game.
Momentum favours Novara, collecting 1.8 points per game to 1.3 for Cittadella.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Novara 0.8 xG, Cittadella 1.4 xG – a total near 2.2. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 42%, GG 55%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Novara 30%, draw 27%, Cittadella 43%.
GG/NG: GG (55%) at 1.75.
Price worth noting: Cittadella to win @2.75 – the bookmaker implies 36%, our ratings say 43%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (78%, odds 1.25). Most likely score in line with that pick: Novara 0–1 Cittadella. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Novara30%fair 3.33 · @2.40
Draw27%fair 3.73 · @3.10
Cittadella43%fair 2.32 · @2.75
2.22Expected goals
0.83Novara xG
1.39Cittadella xG
55%Both score
42%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
0–115%
1–113%
0–011%
0–210%
1–09%
1–29%
From our goals model: Novara 0.8 – 1.4 Cittadella expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Novara
Cittadella
Attack vs Serie C Girone A average
-21%
+11%
Goals conceded vs average
+6%
-45%
Our expected goals here
0.55
1.45
Our own ratings from every Serie C Girone A result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Cittadella to win✓
43%
2.32
2.75 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
73%
1.37
1.28
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
55%
1.81
1.75
Draw no bet
Cittadella (draw no bet)✓
59%
1.69
–
Asian handicap
Novara +1 (Asian handicap)
67%
1.49
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
67%
1.49
1.36
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
58%
1.73
1.73
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
78%
1.28
1.25
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
92%
1.08
–
First team to score
Cittadella to score first✓
56%
1.79
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
47%
2.15
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Cittadella / FT Cittadella✓
30%
3.39
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
9%
11.47
–
Recent results
Novara – last 6
LWDWDW
3 Apr
vs Lumezzane
1–3
L
22 Mar
vs Alcione
3–0
W
15 Mar
@ Lecco
0–0
D
3 Mar
@ Virtus Verona
2–0
W
27 Feb
@ Arzignano Valchiampo
1–1
D
21 Feb
vs Giana Erminio
3–1
W
1.7Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Cittadella – last 6
LWLWDD
3 Apr
@ Union Brescia
1–2
L
29 Mar
vs Lecco
2–1
W
22 Mar
@ Arzignano Valchiampo
0–1
L
15 Mar
vs Dolomiti Bellunesi
2–1
W
3 Mar
vs Inter U23
1–1
D
27 Feb
vs Ospitaletto
2–2
D
1.3Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
83%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Novara and Cittadella.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 78% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Novara vs Cittadella?
On our numbers Novara have a 30% chance of winning, the draw 27% and Cittadella 43%.
How many goals will there be in Novara vs Cittadella?
We expect about 2.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 42% likely and both teams score 55% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Novara vs Cittadella?
Our predicted score is Novara 0–1 Cittadella, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.2 goals in total.
When is Novara vs Cittadella?
Novara vs Cittadella (Serie C Girone A) kicks off on Sunday 19 April 2026 at 13:30 (West Africa Time) at Stadio Silvio Piola.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Triestina0
Vicenza Virtus0
Pro Patria2
Inter U230
Virtus Verona1