Value bet: Both teams to score @ 1.93 – our chance 55% vs 52% implied by the price (edge +6%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultLokomotiv Plovdiv to win ✓55% · @1.65
Double chanceLokomotiv Plovdiv or draw ✓82% · @1.11
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗55% · @1.93
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓77% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 11.08
Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Septemvri Sofia: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
15:45 WAT, Friday 13 March: Lokomotiv Plovdiv v Septemvri Sofia in the First League, played at Stadion Lokomotiv. In the table, Lokomotiv Plovdiv are 11th, lower half, on 12 points after 14 matches; Septemvri Sofia are 12th (in the drop zone) with 11. Only 1 point split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Lokomotiv Plovdiv, last 5: LLDDD Their latest outing: 0–1 defeat to Levski Sofia, away. In their own stadium the record reads 0 won, 1 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.6 goals a game.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Lokomotiv Plovdiv 1.5 xG, Septemvri Sofia 0.8 xG – a total near 2.3. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 43%, GG 55%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to stay under 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Lokomotiv Plovdiv 55%, draw 28%, Septemvri Sofia 18%.
GG/NG: GG (55%) at 1.93.
Price worth noting: Both teams to score @1.93 – the bookmaker implies 52%, our ratings say 55%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (77%, odds 1.25). Most likely score in line with that pick: Lokomotiv Plovdiv 1–0 Septemvri Sofia. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Lokomotiv Plovdiv55%fair 1.83 · @1.65
Draw28%fair 3.59 · @3.40
Septemvri Sofia18%fair 5.70 · @5.00
2.30Expected goals
1.51Lokomotiv Plovdiv xG
0.79Septemvri Sofia xG
55%Both score
43%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–015%
1–112%
2–011%
0–010%
2–19%
0–18%
From our goals model: Lokomotiv Plovdiv 1.5 – 0.8 Septemvri Sofia expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Lokomotiv Plovdiv to win✓
55%
1.83
1.65
Double chance
Lokomotiv Plovdiv or draw✓
82%
1.21
1.11
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
55%
1.82
1.93 ▲
Draw no bet
Lokomotiv Plovdiv (draw no bet)✓
76%
1.32
–
Asian handicap
Septemvri Sofia +1 (Asian handicap)
62%
1.62
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
68%
1.47
1.35
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
57%
1.75
1.70
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
77%
1.30
1.25
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
92%
1.09
–
First team to score
Lokomotiv Plovdiv to score first✓
59%
1.69
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
45%
2.21
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Lokomotiv Plovdiv / FT Lokomotiv Plovdiv✓
33%
3.05
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
11.08
–
Recent results
Lokomotiv Plovdiv – last 5
LLDDD
9 Mar
@ Levski Sofia
0–1
L
5 Mar
vs CSKA 1948
0–5
L
2 Mar
@ Ludogorets
1–1
D
21 Feb
vs Spartak Varna
1–1
D
15 Feb
vs Cherno More Varna
1–1
D
0.6Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
60%Both scored
20%Over 2.5
Septemvri Sofia – last 2
LW
3 Mar
@ Botev Plovdiv
0–2
L
16 Feb
vs Montana
1–0
W
0.5Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
0%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Lokomotiv Plovdiv and Septemvri Sofia.
What is the prediction for Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Septemvri Sofia?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 77% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Septemvri Sofia?
On our numbers Lokomotiv Plovdiv have a 55% chance of winning, the draw 28% and Septemvri Sofia 18%.
How many goals will there be in Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Septemvri Sofia?
We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 43% likely and both teams score 55% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Septemvri Sofia?
Our predicted score is Lokomotiv Plovdiv 1–0 Septemvri Sofia, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.3 goals in total.
When is Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Septemvri Sofia?
Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Septemvri Sofia (First League) kicks off on Friday 13 March 2026 at 15:45 (West Africa Time) at Stadion Lokomotiv.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
