Value bet: Pavia to win @ 3.20 – our chance 35% vs 31% implied by the price (edge +13%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultBrusaporto to win ✗39% · @2.00
Double chanceEither team to win ✓74% · @1.22
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓54% · fair 1.86
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓77% · fair 1.30
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗10% · fair 9.98
Pavia vs Brusaporto: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
14:30 WAT, Sunday 15 February: Pavia v Brusaporto in the Serie D Girone B, played at Stadio Pietro Fortunati.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Pavia 1.3 xG, Brusaporto 1.1 xG – a total near 2.4. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 46%, GG 46%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Pavia 35%, draw 26%, Brusaporto 39%.
Price worth noting: Pavia to win @3.20 – the bookmaker implies 31%, our ratings say 35%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 2.5 goals (54%, odds 1.73). Most likely score in line with that pick: Pavia 1–1 Brusaporto. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Pavia35%fair 2.83 · @3.20
Draw26%fair 3.83 · @3.25
Brusaporto39%fair 2.60 · @2.00
2.44Expected goals
1.29Pavia xG
1.15Brusaporto xG
46%Both score
46%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–113%
1–011%
0–110%
0–09%
2–18%
1–27%
From our goals model: Pavia 1.3 – 1.1 Brusaporto expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Brusaporto to win✗
39%
2.60
2.00
Double chance
Either team to win✓
74%
1.35
1.22
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
54%
1.86
–
Draw no bet
Brusaporto (draw no bet)✗
52%
1.92
–
Asian handicap
Brusaporto +0.5 (Asian handicap)✗
60%
1.66
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
70%
1.43
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
54%
1.85
1.73
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
77%
1.30
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
90%
1.11
–
First team to score
Pavia to score first✓
48%
2.07
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
45%
2.24
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Pavia / FT Pavia✓
23%
4.36
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
10%
9.98
–
Recent results
Pavia
No recent results on record.
Brusaporto
No recent results on record.
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Pavia and Brusaporto.
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 54% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.73.
Who will win Pavia vs Brusaporto?
On our numbers Pavia have a 35% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Brusaporto 39%.
How many goals will there be in Pavia vs Brusaporto?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 46% likely and both teams score 46% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Pavia vs Brusaporto?
Our predicted score is Pavia 1–1 Brusaporto, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Pavia vs Brusaporto?
Pavia vs Brusaporto (Serie D Girone B) kicks off on Sunday 15 February 2026 at 14:30 (West Africa Time) at Stadio Pietro Fortunati.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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