San Donato Tavarnelle v Poggibonsi Prediction & Expected Goals (22 Feb) – Odds, Stats, Pick

Picks by market

ResultSan Donato Tavarnelle to win ✗50% · @1.95

Double chanceSan Donato Tavarnelle or draw ✗79% · @1.22

Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓55% · fair 1.83

GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓82% · fair 1.21

Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗15% · fair 6.49

San Donato Tavarnelle vs Poggibonsi: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

14:30 WAT, Sunday 22 February: San Donato Tavarnelle v Poggibonsi in the Serie D Girone E, played at Stadio Comunale Pianigiani.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give San Donato Tavarnelle 1.4 xG, Poggibonsi 0.8 xG – a total near 2.2. On paper it is a low-scoring affair, with under 2.5 at 60%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to stay under 2.5.

Markets worth a look

1X2 according to our numbers – San Donato Tavarnelle 50%, draw 29%, Poggibonsi 21%.
Lower-risk option: San Donato Tavarnelle or draw (79%) at 1.22.

Our call before kick-off

Our pre-match call was San Donato Tavarnelle or draw (79%, odds 1.22). Most likely score in line with that pick: San Donato Tavarnelle 1–0 Poggibonsi. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

San Donato Tavarnelle50%fair 1.99 · @1.95

Draw29%fair 3.47 · @3.20

Poggibonsi21%fair 4.76 · @3.50

2.17Expected goals

1.35San Donato Tavarnelle xG

0.82Poggibonsi xG

45%Both score

40%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

1–015%

1–113%

0–011%

2–010%

0–19%

2–19%

From our goals model: San Donato Tavarnelle 1.4 – 0.8 Poggibonsi expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

Team ratings (Betarazi)

	San Donato Tavarnelle	Poggibonsi
Attack vs Serie D Girone E average	-17%	-10%
Goals conceded vs average	-15%	-5%
Our expected goals here	1.21	0.80

San Donato Tavarnelle

Poggibonsi

Attack vs Serie D Girone E average

-17%

-10%

Goals conceded vs average

-15%

-5%

Our expected goals here

1.21

0.80

Our own ratings from every Serie D Girone E result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

Market	Most likely	Chance	Fair odds	Bookmaker
Match result	San Donato Tavarnelle to win ✗	50%	1.99	1.95
Double chance	San Donato Tavarnelle or draw ✗	79%	1.27	1.22
Both teams to score	Not both teams to score ✓	55%	1.83	–
Draw no bet	San Donato Tavarnelle (draw no bet) ✗	70%	1.42	–
Asian handicap	Poggibonsi +1 (Asian handicap) ✓	68%	1.46	–
Over/under 1.5 goals	Over 1.5 goals ✗	64%	1.57	–
Over/under 2.5 goals	Under 2.5 goals ✓	60%	1.66	1.65
Over/under 3.5 goals	Under 3.5 goals ✓	82%	1.21	–
Over/under 4.5 goals	Under 4.5 goals ✓	93%	1.07	–
First team to score	San Donato Tavarnelle to score first ✗	55%	1.81	–
Half-time result	Level at half-time ✗	47%	2.12	–
Half-time / full-time	HT San Donato Tavarnelle / FT San Donato Tavarnelle ✗	29%	3.46	–
Correct score	Correct score 1–0 ✗	15%	6.49	–

Market

Most likely

Chance

Fair odds

Bookmaker

Match result

San Donato Tavarnelle to win ✗

50%

1.99

1.95

Double chance

San Donato Tavarnelle or draw ✗

79%

1.27

1.22

Both teams to score

Not both teams to score ✓

55%

1.83

–

Draw no bet

San Donato Tavarnelle (draw no bet) ✗

70%

1.42

–

Asian handicap

Poggibonsi +1 (Asian handicap) ✓

68%

1.46

–

Over/under 1.5 goals

Over 1.5 goals ✗

64%

1.57

–

Over/under 2.5 goals

Under 2.5 goals ✓

60%

1.66

1.65

Over/under 3.5 goals

Under 3.5 goals ✓

82%

1.21

–

Over/under 4.5 goals

Under 4.5 goals ✓

93%

1.07

–

First team to score

San Donato Tavarnelle to score first ✗

55%

1.81

–

Half-time result

Level at half-time ✗

47%

2.12

–

Half-time / full-time

HT San Donato Tavarnelle / FT San Donato Tavarnelle ✗

29%

3.46

–

Correct score

Correct score 1–0 ✗

15%

6.49

–

Recent results

Head to head

Serie D Girone E table

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Prato	11	7	4	0	+13	25
2	Robur Siena	11	7	1	3	+14	22
3	Ternana	11	6	3	2	+12	21
4	Gavorrano	11	5	6	0	+7	21
5	Flaminia	11	5	4	2	+2	19
6	Lucchese	11	5	3	3	+3	18
7	Terranuova Traiana	11	4	5	2	+4	17
8	Tau Altopascio	11	5	2	4	-4	17
9	Montevarchi Calcio	11	5	1	5	+2	16
10	Seravezza	11	4	3	4	+5	15
11	Scandicci	11	4	3	4	+3	15
12	San Donato Tavarnelle	11	4	2	5	-2	14
13	Sasso Marconi Zola	11	3	2	6	-2	11
14	Mezzolara	11	1	8	2	-6	11
15	Rondinella	11	2	4	5	-8	10
16	Grassina	11	1	4	6	-11	7
17	Progresso	11	2	0	9	-16	6
18	Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano	11	0	3	8	-16	3

Team

Pts

+13

+14

+12

-4

San Donato Tavarnelle

-2

-2

-6

-8

-11

-16

Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano

-16

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for San Donato Tavarnelle vs Poggibonsi?

Our pick is San Donato Tavarnelle or draw with a 79% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.

Who will win San Donato Tavarnelle vs Poggibonsi?

On our numbers San Donato Tavarnelle have a 50% chance of winning, the draw 29% and Poggibonsi 21%.

How many goals will there be in San Donato Tavarnelle vs Poggibonsi?

We expect about 2.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 40% likely and both teams score 45% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for San Donato Tavarnelle vs Poggibonsi?

Our predicted score is San Donato Tavarnelle 1–0 Poggibonsi, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.2 goals in total.

When is San Donato Tavarnelle vs Poggibonsi?

San Donato Tavarnelle vs Poggibonsi (Serie D Girone E) kicks off on Sunday 22 February 2026 at 14:30 (West Africa Time) at Stadio Comunale Pianigiani.

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.

San Donato Tavarnelle v Poggibonsi: numbers & prediction