Montevarchi Calcio 43%Draw 26%Tau Altopascio 32%Expected goals 1.43 – 0.95
74%
Betarazi pick
Either team to win
Strong pick · fair odds 1.35 · Won ✓
8/10Rating
–Odds
1
Value bet: Montevarchi Calcio to win @ 2.95 – our chance 43% vs 34% implied by the price (edge +26%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultMontevarchi Calcio to win ✓43% · @2.95
Double chanceEither team to win ✓74% · fair 1.35
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓56% · fair 1.80
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓78% · fair 1.28
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✓13% · fair 7.57
Montevarchi Calcio vs Tau Altopascio: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Sunday 15 March the Serie D Girone E brings Montevarchi Calcio against Tau Altopascio at Stadio Gastone Brilli Peri. Kick-off: 14:30 WAT. In the table, Montevarchi Calcio are 9th, upper half, on 16 points after 11 matches; Tau Altopascio are 8th (upper half) with 17. Only 1 point split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Montevarchi Calcio, last 3: DWW Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Scandicci, away. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 0.3 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 2 clean sheets in that run.
Tau Altopascio, last 3: LDL Their latest outing: 0–1 defeat to Sporting Trestina, at home. Scoring is the worry: just 0.0 goals a game.
Momentum favours Montevarchi Calcio, collecting 2.3 points per game to 0.3 for Tau Altopascio.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Montevarchi Calcio 1.4 xG, Tau Altopascio 1.0 xG – a total near 2.4. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 43%, GG 44%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to stay under 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Montevarchi Calcio 43%, draw 26%, Tau Altopascio 32%.
Price worth noting: Montevarchi Calcio to win @2.95 – the bookmaker implies 34%, our ratings say 43%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Either team to win (74%). Most likely score in line with that pick: Montevarchi Calcio 1–0 Tau Altopascio. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Montevarchi Calcio43%fair 2.35 · @2.95
Draw26%fair 3.88 · @3.10
Tau Altopascio32%fair 3.16 · @2.33
2.38Expected goals
1.43Montevarchi Calcio xG
0.95Tau Altopascio xG
44%Both score
43%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–013%
1–113%
2–09%
0–09%
2–19%
0–19%
From our goals model: Montevarchi Calcio 1.4 – 1.0 Tau Altopascio expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Montevarchi Calcio
Tau Altopascio
Attack vs Serie D Girone E average
-1%
-9%
Goals conceded vs average
-15%
+12%
Our expected goals here
1.71
0.80
Our own ratings from every Serie D Girone E result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Montevarchi Calcio to win✓
43%
2.35
2.95 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
74%
1.35
–
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
56%
1.80
–
Draw no bet
Montevarchi Calcio (draw no bet)✓
57%
1.74
–
Asian handicap
Tau Altopascio +1 (Asian handicap)
69%
1.46
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
69%
1.45
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
57%
1.74
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
78%
1.28
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
91%
1.10
–
First team to score
Montevarchi Calcio to score first✓
55%
1.83
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
45%
2.23
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Montevarchi Calcio / FT Montevarchi Calcio✗
29%
3.51
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✓
13%
7.57
–
Recent results
Montevarchi Calcio – last 3
DWW
1 Mar
@ Scandicci
1–1
D
22 Feb
vs Camaiore
2–0
W
15 Feb
@ Orvietana Calcio
1–0
W
1.3Scored / game
0.3Conceded / game
33%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Tau Altopascio – last 3
LDL
1 Mar
vs Sporting Trestina
0–1
L
22 Feb
@ Seravezza
0–0
D
15 Feb
vs Grosseto
0–1
L
0.0Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
0%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Montevarchi Calcio and Tau Altopascio.
What is the prediction for Montevarchi Calcio vs Tau Altopascio?
Our pick is Either team to win with a 74% chance.
Who will win Montevarchi Calcio vs Tau Altopascio?
On our numbers Montevarchi Calcio have a 43% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Tau Altopascio 32%.
How many goals will there be in Montevarchi Calcio vs Tau Altopascio?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 43% likely and both teams score 44% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Montevarchi Calcio vs Tau Altopascio?
Our predicted score is Montevarchi Calcio 1–0 Tau Altopascio, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Montevarchi Calcio vs Tau Altopascio?
Montevarchi Calcio vs Tau Altopascio (Serie D Girone E) kicks off on Sunday 15 March 2026 at 14:30 (West Africa Time) at Stadio Gastone Brilli Peri.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Poggibonsi2
Sporting Trestina1
Orvietana Calcio1
Foligno Calcio2
Grosseto1