Value bet: Over 2.5 goals @ 2.05 – our chance 52% vs 49% implied by the price (edge +6%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultVigor Senigallia to win ✓57% · @1.67
Double chanceVigor Senigallia or draw ✓79% · @1.17
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗51% · fair 1.96
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓80% · fair 1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 3–0 ✗5% · fair 18.29
Vigor Senigallia vs Sammaurese: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
15:00 WAT, Sunday 22 February: Vigor Senigallia v Sammaurese in the Serie D Girone F, played at Stadio Comunale Goffredo Bianchelli.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Vigor Senigallia 1.9 xG, Sammaurese 1.1 xG – a total near 3.0. That is an open game on paper: 52% for three or more goals, 49% for GG.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Vigor Senigallia 57%, draw 22%, Sammaurese 21%.
Lower-risk option: Vigor Senigallia or draw (79%) at 1.17.
Price worth noting: Over 2.5 goals @2.05 – the bookmaker implies 49%, our ratings say 52%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Vigor Senigallia to win (57%, odds 1.67). Most likely score in line with that pick: Vigor Senigallia 2–1 Sammaurese. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Vigor Senigallia57%fair 1.76 · @1.67
Draw22%fair 4.45 · @3.60
Sammaurese21%fair 4.84 · @4.20
2.99Expected goals
1.87Vigor Senigallia xG
1.12Sammaurese xG
49%Both score
52%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–111%
2–110%
1–09%
2–09%
3–16%
1–26%
From our goals model: Vigor Senigallia 1.9 – 1.1 Sammaurese expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Vigor Senigallia to win✓
57%
1.76
1.67
Double chance
Vigor Senigallia or draw✓
79%
1.26
1.17
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✗
51%
1.96
–
Draw no bet
Vigor Senigallia (draw no bet)✓
73%
1.36
–
Asian handicap
Sammaurese +1.5 (Asian handicap)✗
69%
1.46
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
80%
1.25
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
52%
1.93
2.05 ▲
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
65%
1.54
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
82%
1.22
–
First team to score
Vigor Senigallia to score first✓
59%
1.68
–
Half-time result
Vigor Senigallia ahead at half-time✓
41%
2.46
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Vigor Senigallia / FT Vigor Senigallia✓
34%
2.93
–
Correct score
Correct score 3–0✗
5%
18.29
–
Recent results
Vigor Senigallia – last 1
D
15 Feb
@ Notaresco
1–1
D
1.0Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
100%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Sammaurese – last 1
D
15 Feb
vs Sora
2–2
D
2.0Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
100%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Vigor Senigallia and Sammaurese.
What is the prediction for Vigor Senigallia vs Sammaurese?
Our pick is Vigor Senigallia to win with a 57% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.67.
Who will win Vigor Senigallia vs Sammaurese?
On our numbers Vigor Senigallia have a 57% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Sammaurese 21%.
How many goals will there be in Vigor Senigallia vs Sammaurese?
We expect about 3.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 52% likely and both teams score 49% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Vigor Senigallia vs Sammaurese?
Our predicted score is Vigor Senigallia 2–1 Sammaurese, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.0 goals in total.
When is Vigor Senigallia vs Sammaurese?
Vigor Senigallia vs Sammaurese (Serie D Girone F) kicks off on Sunday 22 February 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time) at Stadio Comunale Goffredo Bianchelli.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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