Value bet: Sarnese to win @ 3.80 – our chance 32% vs 26% implied by the price (edge +20%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultPaganese to win ✗44% · @1.85
Double chanceEither team to win ✗75% · @1.28
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗52% · fair 1.91
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓74% · fair 1.35
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗9% · fair 10.63
Sarnese vs Paganese: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Sunday 22 February the Serie D Girone H brings Sarnese against Paganese at Stadio Felice Squitieri. Kick-off: 15:00 WAT.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Sarnese 1.3 xG, Paganese 1.2 xG – a total near 2.6. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 44%, GG 48%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Sarnese 32%, draw 25%, Paganese 44%.
Price worth noting: Sarnese to win @3.80 – the bookmaker implies 26%, our ratings say 32%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 2.5 goals (56%, odds 1.60). Most likely score in line with that pick: Sarnese 1–1 Paganese. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Sarnese32%fair 3.17 · @3.80
Draw25%fair 4.01 · @3.20
Paganese44%fair 2.30 · @1.85
2.57Expected goals
1.34Sarnese xG
1.22Paganese xG
48%Both score
44%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–113%
1–010%
0–19%
2–18%
1–28%
0–08%
From our goals model: Sarnese 1.3 – 1.2 Paganese expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Paganese to win✗
44%
2.30
1.85
Double chance
Either team to win✗
75%
1.33
1.28
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✗
52%
1.91
–
Draw no bet
Paganese (draw no bet)
58%
1.72
–
Asian handicap
Paganese +0.5 (Asian handicap)✓
61%
1.65
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
73%
1.38
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
56%
1.79
1.60
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
74%
1.35
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
88%
1.13
–
First team to score
Sarnese to score first
48%
2.07
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
43%
2.30
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Sarnese / FT Sarnese✗
23%
4.37
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
9%
10.63
–
Recent results
Sarnese – last 1
D
15 Feb
@ Real Normanna
2–2
D
2.0Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
100%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Paganese – last 1
W
15 Feb
vs Pompei
1–0
W
1.0Scored / game
0.0Conceded / game
0%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Sarnese and Paganese.
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 56% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.60.
Who will win Sarnese vs Paganese?
On our numbers Sarnese have a 32% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Paganese 44%.
How many goals will there be in Sarnese vs Paganese?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 44% likely and both teams score 48% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Sarnese vs Paganese?
Our predicted score is Sarnese 1–1 Paganese, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Sarnese vs Paganese?
Sarnese vs Paganese (Serie D Girone H) kicks off on Sunday 22 February 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time) at Stadio Felice Squitieri.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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