Value bet: Vigor Lamezia to win @ 3.70 – our chance 29% vs 27% implied by the price (edge +7%). Bigger price, more risk.
Picks by market
ResultGelbison to win45% · @2.00
Double chanceEither team to win74% · fair 1.36
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score53% · @1.85
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals74% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–19% · fair 11.27
Gelbison vs Vigor Lamezia: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
14:30 WAT, Sunday 1 March: Gelbison v Vigor Lamezia in the Serie D Girone I, played at Stadio Valentino Giordano.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Gelbison 1.4 xG, Vigor Lamezia 1.1 xG – a total near 2.5. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 45%, GG 53%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Gelbison 45%, draw 26%, Vigor Lamezia 29%.
GG/NG: GG (53%) at 1.85.
Price worth noting: Vigor Lamezia to win @3.70 – the bookmaker implies 27%, our ratings say 29%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (74%, odds 1.25). Most likely score in line with that pick: Gelbison 1–1 Vigor Lamezia. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Gelbison45%fair 2.24 · @2.00
Draw26%fair 3.81 · @3.15
Vigor Lamezia29%fair 3.45 · @3.70
2.51Expected goals
1.41Gelbison xG
1.10Vigor Lamezia xG
53%Both score
45%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–113%
1–011%
0–19%
2–19%
0–08%
2–08%
From our goals model: Gelbison 1.4 – 1.1 Vigor Lamezia expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Gelbison to win
45%
2.24
2.00
Double chance
Either team to win
74%
1.36
–
Both teams to score
Both teams to score
53%
1.90
1.85
Draw no bet
Gelbison (draw no bet)
61%
1.65
–
Asian handicap
Vigor Lamezia +1 (Asian handicap)
73%
1.38
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals
70%
1.43
1.32
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals
55%
1.83
1.68
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals
74%
1.34
1.25
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals
87%
1.14
1.08
First team to score
Gelbison to score first
52%
1.94
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time
44%
2.28
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Gelbison / FT Gelbison
26%
3.87
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1
9%
11.27
–
Recent results
Gelbison – last 2
WW
22 Feb
@ Vibonese
4–0
W
15 Feb
vs Ragusa
2–0
W
3.0Scored / game
0.0Conceded / game
0%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Vigor Lamezia – last 2
WL
22 Feb
vs Reggina
2–0
W
15 Feb
@ Nissa
1–2
L
1.5Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Gelbison and Vigor Lamezia.
What is the prediction for Gelbison vs Vigor Lamezia?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 74% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Gelbison vs Vigor Lamezia?
On our numbers Gelbison have a 45% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Vigor Lamezia 29%.
How many goals will there be in Gelbison vs Vigor Lamezia?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 45% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Gelbison vs Vigor Lamezia?
Our predicted score is Gelbison 1–1 Vigor Lamezia, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Gelbison vs Vigor Lamezia?
Gelbison vs Vigor Lamezia (Serie D Girone I) kicks off on Sunday 1 March 2026 at 14:30 (West Africa Time) at Stadio Valentino Giordano.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Savoia2
Messina1