Good pick · fair odds 1.50 · bookmaker 1.40 · Lost ✗
6/10Rating
1.40Odds
Picks by market
ResultCelaya to win ✗67% · @1.40
Double chanceCelaya or draw ✓86% · @1.05
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓61% · @1.67
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓83% · @1.17
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.39
Celaya vs Tapachula: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
02:00 WAT, Sunday 15 February: Celaya v Tapachula in the Liga Premier Serie A, played at Estadio Miguel Alemán Valdés.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Celaya 2.4 xG, Tapachula 1.0 xG – a total near 3.4. Both nets should be busy – over 2.5 sits at 64% and GG at 61%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Celaya 67%, draw 19%, Tapachula 14%.
GG/NG: GG (61%) at 1.67.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Celaya to win (67%, odds 1.40). Most likely score in line with that pick: Celaya 2–1 Tapachula. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Celaya67%fair 1.50 · @1.40
Draw19%fair 5.29 · @4.40
Tapachula14%fair 6.91 · @6.50
3.43Expected goals
2.39Celaya xG
1.04Tapachula xG
61%Both score
64%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
2–110%
2–09%
1–18%
1–08%
3–18%
3–07%
From our goals model: Celaya 2.4 – 1.0 Tapachula expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Celaya to win✗
67%
1.50
1.40
Double chance
Celaya or draw✓
86%
1.17
1.05
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
61%
1.65
1.67
Draw no bet
Celaya (draw no bet)
82%
1.22
–
Asian handicap
Celaya -0.5 (Asian handicap)✗
67%
1.49
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
83%
1.21
1.17
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
64%
1.57
1.53
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
58%
1.73
1.55
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
75%
1.33
1.22
First team to score
Celaya to score first
67%
1.48
–
Half-time result
Celaya ahead at half-time✓
50%
2.00
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Celaya / FT Celaya✗
45%
2.24
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
10%
10.39
–
Recent results
Celaya
No recent results on record.
Tapachula
No recent results on record.
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Celaya and Tapachula.
Our pick is Celaya to win with a 67% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.40.
Who will win Celaya vs Tapachula?
On our numbers Celaya have a 67% chance of winning, the draw 19% and Tapachula 14%.
How many goals will there be in Celaya vs Tapachula?
We expect about 3.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 64% likely and both teams score 61% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Celaya vs Tapachula?
Our predicted score is Celaya 2–1 Tapachula, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.4 goals in total.
When is Celaya vs Tapachula?
Celaya vs Tapachula (Liga Premier Serie A) kicks off on Sunday 15 February 2026 at 02:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Miguel Alemán Valdés.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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