Selaya vs Guarnizo: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Guarnizo travel to face Selaya on Wednesday 25 February in the Tercera División RFEF Group 3, with Estadio El Castañal the venue – the ball rolls at 19:00 WAT. In the table, Selaya are 16th, in the drop zone, on 7 points after 10 matches; Guarnizo are 13th (lower half) with 8. Only 1 point split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Selaya 1.0 xG, Guarnizo 1.3 xG – a total near 2.2. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 39%, GG 54%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Selaya 28%, draw 27%, Guarnizo 45%.
GG/NG: GG (54%) at 2.05.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Both teams to score (54%, odds 2.05 – longer than our fair 1.85, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Selaya 1–1 Guarnizo. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Selaya28%fair 3.53 · @3.40
Draw27%fair 3.71 · @3.10
Guarnizo45%fair 2.24 · @2.00
2.23Expected goals
0.98Selaya xG
1.25Guarnizo xG
54%Both score
39%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
0–113%
1–113%
0–011%
1–011%
0–28%
1–28%
From our goals model: Selaya 1.0 – 1.3 Guarnizo expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Guarnizo to win✓
45%
2.24
2.00
Double chance
Either team to win✓
73%
1.37
1.36
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
54%
1.85
2.05 ▲
Draw no bet
Guarnizo (draw no bet)✓
61%
1.63
–
Asian handicap
Selaya +1 (Asian handicap)✗
75%
1.33
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
65%
1.53
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
61%
1.63
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
81%
1.23
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
92%
1.08
–
First team to score
Guarnizo to score first✓
50%
1.99
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
47%
2.13
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Guarnizo / FT Guarnizo✓
25%
4.08
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
8%
12.13
–
Recent results
Selaya – last 1
L
22 Feb
vs Tropezón
0–1
L
0.0Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
0%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Guarnizo – last 2
LW
21 Feb
vs Gimnástica Torrelavega
0–1
L
15 Feb
@ Revilla
2–1
W
1.0Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Selaya and Guarnizo.
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 54% chance, at bookmaker odds of 2.05.
Who will win Selaya vs Guarnizo?
On our numbers Selaya have a 28% chance of winning, the draw 27% and Guarnizo 45%.
How many goals will there be in Selaya vs Guarnizo?
We expect about 2.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 39% likely and both teams score 54% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Selaya vs Guarnizo?
Our predicted score is Selaya 1–1 Guarnizo, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.2 goals in total.
When is Selaya vs Guarnizo?
Selaya vs Guarnizo (Tercera División RFEF Group 3) kicks off on Wednesday 25 February 2026 at 19:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio El Castañal.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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