Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓51% · fair 1.98
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓77% · fair 1.29
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✓10% · fair 10.36
Derio vs Zamudio: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
17:30 WAT, Sunday 8 March: Derio v Zamudio in the Tercera División RFEF Group 4, played at Campo de Fútbol Ibaiondo.
Current form
Zamudio, last 3: LLW Their latest outing: 2–3 defeat to Touring, at home. Goals for and against: 1.7 scored, 2.7 conceded per game.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Derio 1.7 xG, Zamudio 1.1 xG – a total near 2.8. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 50%, GG 51%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Derio 53%, draw 25%, Zamudio 22%.
Lower-risk option: Derio or draw (78%) at 1.17.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Derio to win (53%, odds 1.75). Most likely score in line with that pick: Derio 1–0 Zamudio. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Derio53%fair 1.90 · @1.75
Draw25%fair 3.95 · @3.30
Zamudio22%fair 4.55 · @4.20
2.82Expected goals
1.70Derio xG
1.12Zamudio xG
51%Both score
50%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–111%
1–010%
2–110%
2–09%
0–17%
1–26%
From our goals model: Derio 1.7 – 1.1 Zamudio expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Derio to win✓
53%
1.90
1.75
Double chance
Derio or draw✓
78%
1.28
1.17
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
51%
1.98
–
Draw no bet
Derio (draw no bet)✓
71%
1.42
–
Asian handicap
Zamudio +1 (Asian handicap)
64%
1.56
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
77%
1.29
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
50%
1.98
1.73
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
69%
1.46
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
84%
1.18
–
First team to score
Derio to score first✓
57%
1.76
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
41%
2.46
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Derio / FT Derio✓
31%
3.21
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✓
10%
10.36
–
Recent results
Derio – last 1
D
1 Mar
@ Santurtzi
1–1
D
1.0Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
100%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Zamudio – last 3
LLW
1 Mar
vs Touring
2–3
L
22 Feb
@ Deportivo Alavés III
0–5
L
15 Feb
vs Aurrerá Vitoria
3–0
W
1.7Scored / game
2.7Conceded / game
33%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Derio and Zamudio.
Our pick is Derio to win with a 53% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.75.
Who will win Derio vs Zamudio?
On our numbers Derio have a 53% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Zamudio 22%.
How many goals will there be in Derio vs Zamudio?
We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 50% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Derio vs Zamudio?
Our predicted score is Derio 1–0 Zamudio, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.8 goals in total.
When is Derio vs Zamudio?
Derio vs Zamudio (Tercera División RFEF Group 4) kicks off on Sunday 8 March 2026 at 17:30 (West Africa Time) at Campo de Fútbol Ibaiondo.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
