Value bet: Collerense to win @ 2.90 – our chance 39% vs 34% implied by the price (edge +14%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultCollerense to win ✓39% · @2.90
Double chanceEither team to win ✓76% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗50% · fair 1.99
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✗74% · fair 1.35
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 11.00
Collerense vs Mercadal: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Collerense welcome Mercadal to Estadio Municipal Coll d’en Rebassa for a Tercera División RFEF Group 11 fixture on Wednesday 4 March (17:00 WAT).
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Collerense 1.5 xG, Mercadal 1.2 xG – a total near 2.7. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 50%, GG 50%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Collerense 39%, draw 24%, Mercadal 37%.
Price worth noting: Collerense to win @2.90 – the bookmaker implies 34%, our ratings say 39%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 2.5 goals (50%, odds 1.90). Most likely score in line with that pick: Collerense 1–1 Mercadal. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Collerense39%fair 2.55 · @2.90
Draw24%fair 4.14 · @3.40
Mercadal37%fair 2.73 · @2.10
2.66Expected goals
1.49Collerense xG
1.17Mercadal xG
50%Both score
50%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–112%
1–010%
2–19%
0–18%
2–08%
1–27%
From our goals model: Collerense 1.5 – 1.2 Mercadal expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Collerense
Mercadal
Attack vs Tercera División RFEF Group 11 average
-9%
-29%
Goals conceded vs average
+13%
+21%
Our expected goals here
1.72
0.98
Our own ratings from every Tercera División RFEF Group 11 result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Collerense to win✓
39%
2.55
2.90 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
76%
1.32
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
50%
1.99
–
Draw no bet
Collerense (draw no bet)✓
52%
1.93
–
Asian handicap
Mercadal +1 (Asian handicap)
72%
1.40
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
74%
1.35
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
50%
1.99
1.90
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
72%
1.38
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
87%
1.15
–
First team to score
Collerense to score first✓
52%
1.92
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
42%
2.36
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Collerense / FT Collerense✓
26%
3.78
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
11.00
–
Recent results
Collerense – last 1
L
21 Feb
@ Llosetense
1–4
L
1.0Scored / game
4.0Conceded / game
100%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Mercadal – last 1
D
22 Feb
vs Peña Deportiva
0–0
D
0.0Scored / game
0.0Conceded / game
0%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Collerense and Mercadal.
What is the prediction for Collerense vs Mercadal?
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 50% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.90.
Who will win Collerense vs Mercadal?
On our numbers Collerense have a 39% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Mercadal 37%.
How many goals will there be in Collerense vs Mercadal?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 50% likely and both teams score 50% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Collerense vs Mercadal?
Our predicted score is Collerense 1–1 Mercadal, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.
When is Collerense vs Mercadal?
Collerense vs Mercadal (Tercera División RFEF Group 11) kicks off on Wednesday 4 March 2026 at 17:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Municipal Coll d’en Rebassa.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
