Value bet: Aoiz to win @ 3.70 – our chance 30% vs 27% implied by the price (edge +9%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultPeña Sport to win ✓45% · @1.80
Double chanceEither team to win ✓75% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓50% · fair 2.00
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓77% · fair 1.30
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✓9% · fair 11.76
Aoiz vs Peña Sport: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Peña Sport travel to face Aoiz on Sunday 22 March in the Tercera División RFEF Group 15, with Estadio San Miguel the venue – the ball rolls at 17:00 WAT.
Current form
Aoiz, last 4: LLLL Their latest outing: 1–3 defeat to Atlético Artajonés, away. Scoring is the worry: just 0.8 goals a game.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Aoiz 1.4 xG, Peña Sport 1.4 xG – a total near 2.8. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 50%, GG 50%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Aoiz 30%, draw 25%, Peña Sport 45%.
Price worth noting: Aoiz to win @3.70 – the bookmaker implies 27%, our ratings say 30%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 2.5 goals (50%, odds 2.00). Most likely score in line with that pick: Aoiz 1–2 Peña Sport. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Aoiz30%fair 3.38 · @3.70
Draw25%fair 3.94 · @3.50
Peña Sport45%fair 2.22 · @1.80
2.82Expected goals
1.38Aoiz xG
1.44Peña Sport xG
50%Both score
50%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–112%
0–19%
1–29%
1–08%
2–18%
0–26%
From our goals model: Aoiz 1.4 – 1.4 Peña Sport expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Peña Sport to win✓
45%
2.22
1.80
Double chance
Either team to win✓
75%
1.34
1.22
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
50%
2.00
–
Draw no bet
Peña Sport (draw no bet)✓
60%
1.66
–
Asian handicap
Aoiz +0.5 (Asian handicap)✗
61%
1.63
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
77%
1.30
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
50%
1.98
2.00
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
69%
1.45
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
84%
1.18
–
First team to score
Peña Sport to score first
48%
2.09
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
41%
2.43
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Peña Sport / FT Peña Sport✗
23%
4.43
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✓
9%
11.76
–
Recent results
Aoiz – last 4
LLLL
18 Mar
@ Atlético Artajonés
1–3
L
15 Mar
@ Cirbonero
0–2
L
21 Feb
vs Huarte
2–3
L
15 Feb
@ Subiza
0–2
L
0.8Scored / game
2.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Peña Sport – last 2
WW
18 Mar
vs Cortes
2–1
W
21 Feb
@ Oberena
2–1
W
2.0Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
100%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Aoiz and Peña Sport.
Our pick is Over 2.5 goals with a 50% chance, at bookmaker odds of 2.00.
Who will win Aoiz vs Peña Sport?
On our numbers Aoiz have a 30% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Peña Sport 45%.
How many goals will there be in Aoiz vs Peña Sport?
We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 50% likely and both teams score 50% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Aoiz vs Peña Sport?
Our predicted score is Aoiz 1–2 Peña Sport, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.8 goals in total.
When is Aoiz vs Peña Sport?
Aoiz vs Peña Sport (Tercera División RFEF Group 15) kicks off on Sunday 22 March 2026 at 17:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio San Miguel.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
