Good pick · fair odds 1.71 · bookmaker 1.57 · Lost ✗
5/10Rating
1.57Odds
Picks by market
ResultIllescas to win ✓42% · @2.15
Double chanceEither team to win ✓74% · @1.28
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗52% · fair 1.93
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓78% · fair 1.28
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗12% · fair 8.36
Illescas vs Marchamalo: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
12:00 WAT, Sunday 15 March: Illescas v Marchamalo in the Tercera División RFEF Group 18, played at Estadio Municipal de Illescas. In the table, Illescas are 6th, upper half, on 17 points after 10 matches; Marchamalo are 13th (lower half) with 12.
Current form
Illescas, last 3: DLL Their latest outing: 0–0 draw with Villarrubia, at home. Scoring is the worry: just 0.3 goals a game.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Illescas 1.3 xG, Marchamalo 1.1 xG – a total near 2.4. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 41%, GG 48%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Illescas 42%, draw 26%, Marchamalo 32%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 2.5 goals (59%, odds 1.57). Most likely score in line with that pick: Illescas 1–1 Marchamalo. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Illescas42%fair 2.40 · @2.15
Draw26%fair 3.81 · @3.10
Marchamalo32%fair 3.11 · @3.00
2.39Expected goals
1.30Illescas xG
1.09Marchamalo xG
48%Both score
41%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–113%
1–012%
0–110%
0–09%
2–18%
2–08%
From our goals model: Illescas 1.3 – 1.1 Marchamalo expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Illescas to win✓
42%
2.40
2.15
Double chance
Either team to win✓
74%
1.36
1.28
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✗
52%
1.93
–
Draw no bet
Illescas (draw no bet)✓
56%
1.77
–
Asian handicap
Marchamalo +1 (Asian handicap)
76%
1.32
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
69%
1.45
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
59%
1.71
1.57
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
78%
1.28
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
91%
1.10
–
First team to score
Illescas to score first✓
49%
2.02
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
45%
2.21
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Illescas / FT Illescas✓
24%
4.18
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
12%
8.36
–
Recent results
Illescas – last 3
DLL
1 Mar
vs Villarrubia
0–0
D
21 Feb
@ Tarancón
1–2
L
15 Feb
vs Pedroñeras
0–1
L
0.3Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Marchamalo – last 2
LW
1 Mar
@ Villarrobledo
1–2
L
21 Feb
vs Albacete II
2–1
W
1.5Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
100%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Illescas and Marchamalo.
What is the prediction for Illescas vs Marchamalo?
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 59% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.57.
Who will win Illescas vs Marchamalo?
On our numbers Illescas have a 42% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Marchamalo 32%.
How many goals will there be in Illescas vs Marchamalo?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 41% likely and both teams score 48% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Illescas vs Marchamalo?
Our predicted score is Illescas 1–1 Marchamalo, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Illescas vs Marchamalo?
Illescas vs Marchamalo (Tercera División RFEF Group 18) kicks off on Sunday 15 March 2026 at 12:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Municipal de Illescas.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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